Exploring co-occurring UK HYDRo-meteorological extremes that exAcerbate risk (HYDRA)

探索加剧风险的同时发生的英国水文气象极端事件 (HYDRA)

• 批准号: NE/X009947/1
• 负责人: John Hillier
• 金额: $ 10.27万
• 依托单位: Loughborough University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX009947%2F1
• 关键词: Exploring; co; occurring; UK; HYDRo

In wintertime, infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) is threatened by multiple significant meteorological hazards, and it is increasingly apparent that these interact in a complex yet poorly studied multi-hazard system (e.g. Hillier et al, 2020). For example, the impacts of the dramatic February 2022 storm sequence (Dudley, Eunice, Franklin) demonstrated the pressing need for a more sophisticated view of GB's multi-hazard risk. The high windspeeds of Eunice left over 1 million homes without power and caused major transport disruption (trains and flights cancelled, roads blocked) in southern England, with snow causing further disruption in Scotland and northern England. Persistent heavy rain then resulted in the flooding of >400 homes during Franklin. In addition, there was ~£3 billion in direct insurance damage, road closures due to landslips (e.g. A57 'snake pass', Derbyshire, closed for 1 month) and other societal impacts in GB (e.g. school and port closures, trees felled). The impacts underlined the need to properly account for severe episodes that might (i) encompass a number of storms, (ii) span many days, and (iii) present a variety of hazards that manifest in different locations and affect various critical systems of UK plc (e.g. infrastructure).This contrasts to current practice where GB's hydro-meteorological hazards (related to wind and rain) are almost always considered separately (e.g. the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment very much places single weather risks into siloes). There is some grouping for convenience (e.g. risks to transport from high and low temperatures), and the related issue of cascading failure is discussed, but there is no integrated logic applied to risk driven by co-occurring hazards. Likewise, insurers apply sophisticated, stochastic risk models (e.g. >10,000 simulated events), yet inland flooding and extreme wind are still modelled as separate and independent.A critical advance to better understanding flooding and extreme wind was identifying that they were systematically linked (Hillier et al., 2015). Spurred on by this initial observation, various UKRI funded projects (i.e. UKCGFI, a KTP with Lloyds Bank Group, STORMY-WEATHER, ROBUST) are building a scientific evidence base for a link between these two hazards. As part of this, in 2022 the Bank of England introduced an initial (cautious) requirement for insurers to account for this link in the stress tests to which they must submit. HYDRA will take this work to a new level, extending this important line of enquiry to the wider wintertime multi-hazard system (i.e. inland flooding, landslide, extreme wind, storm surge, extreme cold, snow). HYDRA is an exploratory project that aims to identify, quantify, and provisionally explain how the co-occurrence of six key GB hydro-meteorological wintertime extremes exacerbates risk. HYDRA will use historical observations (assimilated in ERA5, GLOFAS) and UKCP18 regional climate projections to better understand how linked hazards will evolve into the future. Rail and other infrastructure providers' sensitivity to identified co-occurrences will then be mapped in workshops book-ending the scientific work. HYDRA's science is ground-breaking due to the lack of systematic, highly multi-hazard risk evidence currently available. In addition to contributing to NERC science, it will define the engineering (EPSRC) challenge by identifying drivers for risk modelling of infrastructure networks, and will feed into policy (via DEFRA and the CCRA) and industry (e.g. reinsurance) practice.

在冬季，英国（GB）的基础设施受到多种重大气象灾害的威胁，越来越明显的是，这些灾害在一个复杂但研究不足的多灾害系统中相互作用（例如Hillier等人，2020）。例如，2022年2月戏剧性风暴序列（达德利、尤尼斯、富兰克林）的影响表明，迫切需要对英国的多种灾害风险进行更复杂的分析。尤尼斯的高风速导致超过100万户家庭断电，并在英格兰南部造成重大交通中断（火车和航班取消，道路封锁），苏格兰和英格兰北方的降雪造成进一步中断。持续的大雨导致富兰克林期间超过400户房屋被淹。此外，直接保险损失约为30亿英镑，由于山体滑坡导致道路关闭（例如德比郡A57“蛇通道”关闭1个月）以及GB的其他社会影响（例如学校和港口关闭，树木砍伐）。这些影响突出表明，需要适当考虑严重事件，这些事件可能（i）包括一些风暴，（ii）跨越许多天，及（iii）在不同地点出现各种危害，并影响UK plc的各种关键系统（例如基础设施）。这与GB的水文气象灾害（与风和雨有关）几乎总是单独考虑（例如，英国的气候变化风险评估非常将单一天气风险置于孤立的位置）。为方便起见，进行了一些分组（例如，高温和低温运输的风险），并讨论了级联故障的相关问题，但没有综合逻辑适用于由共同发生的危害驱动的风险。同样，保险公司应用复杂的随机风险模型（例如，> 10，000个模拟事件），但内陆洪水和极端风仍然被建模为单独和独立的。更好地理解洪水和极端风的一个关键进展是确定它们是系统性联系的（Hillier等人，2015年）的报告。在这一初步观察的推动下，各种UKRI资助的项目（即UKCGFI、与劳埃德银行集团合作的KTP、STORMY-WEATHER、ROBUST）正在为这两种危害之间的联系建立科学证据基础。作为其中的一部分，英国央行在2022年引入了一项初步（谨慎）要求，要求保险公司在必须提交的压力测试中考虑这一联系。HYDROGEN将把这项工作提高到一个新的水平，将这一重要的调查范围扩大到更广泛的冬季多种灾害系统（即内陆洪水、滑坡、极端大风、风暴潮、极端寒冷、降雪）。HYDROGEN是一个探索性项目，旨在识别，量化和临时解释六个关键GB水文气象冬季极端事件的共同发生如何加剧风险。HYDRONIC将利用历史观测（纳入ERA 5、GLOFAS）和UKCP 18区域气候预测，以更好地了解相关灾害如何演变到未来。铁路和其他基础设施供应商对已确定的共同发生的敏感性将在研讨会上绘制，以结束科学工作。由于目前缺乏系统的、高度多危害的风险证据，HYDROGEN的科学是开创性的。除了为NERC科学做出贡献外，它还将通过确定基础设施网络风险建模的驱动因素来定义工程（EPSRC）挑战，并将为政策（通过DEFRA和CCRA）和行业（例如再保险）实践提供信息。