Learning to adapt to an uncertain future: linking genes, trees, people and processes for more resilient treescapes (newLEAF)

学习适应不确定的未来：将基因、树木、人类和过程联系起来，打造更具弹性的树景 (newLEAF)

• 批准号: NE/V019988/1
• 负责人: Adam Kleczkowski
• 金额: $ 34.6万
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV019988%2F1
• 关键词: Learning; adapt; uncertain; future; linking

This proposal addresses Theme 3: Resilience of UK Treescapes to global change.Treescapes - our woodlands, our forests, our urban trees - are critical to our environment, our health and well-being and our ability to transition to a zero carbon economy via plans to substantially increase tree numbers in the landscape. However, climate change and increasing risks from pests and disease threaten the UK treescape like never before. This future is uncertain but we do know that our treescapes must change to survive and thrive. Although we may see treescapes as permanent or fixed, in truth they have an amazing capacity to be dynamic and shift on timescales that are relevant to human lifespans. Indeed, it is often only human interventions that have prevented populations from changing and adapting. For example, where uncontrolled grazing is allowed, little or no regeneration occurs and there is no opportunity for new genetic diversity to enter the population and for the population to adapt. For treescapes to be resilient, change is essential, but this can take many forms - from low intervention, allowing regeneration but taking little other action, to highly managed situations like production forestry, where deliberate choices can be taken to deploy particular genotypes to track environmental shifts. To understand, live with and shape change within treescapes, we must first learn from how treescapes have changed in the past, then quantify how much potential they have to change in the future, and finally develop ways of building change into our treescapes and the ways we interact with them. This proposal outlines newLEAF, a project to evaluate options for using the extensive natural genetic variation within tree species to keep pace with expected changes in climate and the biotic (pest & disease) environment. Firstly, we will learn from the past 100 years of treescape management in the UK, bringing together historical information on policy and practice with data on changing tree populations on the ground to understand the link between choices made at a policy level and the outcomes for treescape resilience. Then we will quantify the rate of adaptation that can be achieved by both natural and human selection in key tree species for the UK, focusing on traits linked to fitness in forecasted environments and susceptibility to pests and pathogens. We will compare the impacts that natural regeneration versus planting has on the development of biotic communities associated with trees, particularly fungi and insect vectors with the potential to mediate risk. Drawing directly from the experimental work, we will design models incorporating data on trait variability and will evaluate how internal adaptability within tree species can be used, in varying compositions, configurations and under different management regimes, to generate diverse and dynamic treescapes with an in-built capability to track environmental changes, even when that change is uncertain. We will test tools and strategies to minimise risk from pests and pathogens, especially those associated with planned increases in tree numbers in the landscape, learning from the interactions between our set of focal species and their associated communities. Working with stakeholders, we will explore the social and economic drivers that can be deployed to effect change in the landscape, learning from historical environmental policies and their outcomes in the UK and from key case studies in similar systems across Europe. A particular focus will be on people engaging with the concepts of uncertainty, dynamism and change, studying new ways to integrate science and the arts and creating new works framed around these ideas. Bringing together this diverse and multidisciplinary team, we will produce new research, guidance, policy recommendations, art and science-based tools that will advance the cause of resilience in the UK's future treescape.

该提案涉及主题3：英国树木景观对全球变化的适应能力。树木景观--我们的林地、我们的森林、我们的城市树木--对我们的环境、我们的健康和福祉以及我们通过大幅增加景观中树木数量的计划向零碳经济过渡的能力至关重要。然而，气候变化和病虫害风险的增加前所未有地威胁着英国的树木景观。这个未来是不确定的，但我们知道，我们的树木必须改变生存和繁荣。虽然我们可能认为树景是永久的或固定的，但事实上，它们具有惊人的动态能力，并在与人类寿命相关的时间尺度上发生变化。事实上，往往只是人为的干预阻碍了人口的变化和适应。例如，在允许不受控制的放牧的地方，很少或根本没有再生，新的遗传多样性没有机会进入种群，种群也没有机会适应。要使树木具有弹性，变化是必不可少的，但这可以采取多种形式-从低干预，允许再生但几乎不采取其他行动，到高度管理的情况，如生产林业，可以采取深思熟虑的选择来部署特定的基因型来跟踪环境变化。为了理解、适应和塑造树景中的变化，我们必须首先学习树景在过去是如何变化的，然后量化它们在未来有多大的变化潜力，最后开发出在我们的树景中构建变化的方法，以及我们与它们互动的方式。该提案概述了newLEAF项目，该项目旨在评估利用树种内广泛的自然遗传变异来跟上气候和生物（病虫害）环境的预期变化的选择。首先，我们将从英国过去100年的树木景观管理中学习，将政策和实践的历史信息与实地树木种群变化的数据结合起来，以了解政策层面的选择与树木景观弹性结果之间的联系。然后，我们将量化英国关键树种的自然和人为选择所能实现的适应率，重点关注与预测环境中的适应性以及对害虫和病原体的易感性相关的性状。我们将比较自然更新与种植对与树木相关的生物群落发展的影响，特别是真菌和昆虫媒介，这些生物群落具有介导风险的潜力。直接从实验工作中，我们将设计模型，结合性状变异性的数据，并将评估如何在不同的组成，配置和不同的管理制度下，树种内部的适应性可以使用，以产生多样化和动态的treescape与内置的能力，以跟踪环境变化，即使这种变化是不确定的。我们将测试工具和策略，以最大限度地减少害虫和病原体的风险，特别是那些与景观中树木数量的计划增加有关的风险，从我们的重点物种及其相关社区之间的相互作用中学习。与利益相关者合作，我们将探索可以部署以影响景观变化的社会和经济驱动因素，从英国历史环境政策及其成果以及欧洲类似系统的关键案例研究中学习。一个特别的重点将是人们参与的不确定性，活力和变化的概念，研究新的方法来整合科学和艺术，并围绕这些想法创造新的作品。汇集这个多元化和多学科的团队，我们将产生新的研究，指导，政策建议，艺术和科学为基础的工具，这将推动在英国的未来treescape恢复力的事业。

项目成果

The effect of pests and pathogens on forest harvesting regimes: A bioeconomic model

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107800
• 发表时间: 2023-03-31
• 期刊: ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 7
• 作者: McTaggart, Ewan;Megiddo, Itamar;Kleczkowski, Adam
• 通讯作者: Kleczkowski, Adam