CANARI: Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region and Impacts on the UK

极端天气事件会产生重大影响。例如：在2013/14和2015/16的暴风雨冬季，英国发生了大面积的洪水，造成了30亿英镑的财产和生计损失。在2017年、2018年和2019年的夏天，欧洲的热浪导致英国超过2500人死亡。风暴也会造成重大影响；2020年2月的西亚拉风暴导致整个欧洲的保险损失达14亿英镑。气候变化还可能影响西北欧大陆架海域，影响渔业等海洋资源的可持续管理。因此，适应气候变化和建立适应能力是英国政府、企业和社会的优先事项。然而，气候变化对英国影响的预测仍然存在很大的不确定性。尤其重要的是未来几十年，这是适应气候变化的一个重要时间框架。鉴于英国天气、气候和大陆架海域的潜在变化，我们迫切需要了解当前的管理策略和气候适应计划是否足够。英国的天气和气候基本上是由北大西洋大气和海洋的大尺度环流决定的。许多因素影响这些循环模式，但风险评估特别关注的是迅速或破坏性变化的可能性。2019冠状病毒病大流行的一个重要遗产是提高了人们对快速破坏性变化的认识，这些变化会导致级联影响并暴露出系统性风险。北极通过控制大气和海洋机制（如北大西洋风暴路径），对英国和欧洲的天气和气候施加了强大的、长期的影响，因此，最可能导致破坏性区域变化的原因之一是北极正在以两倍于全球平均速度快速变暖。北极迅速变暖的一个主要症状是海冰的逐渐消失。然而，目前的气候模式低估了观测到的9月份海冰面积的减少。这可能是由于模式缺乏或不能很好地反映关键的物理过程，例如，当前模式的低分辨率导致了不现实的弱海洋边界流和大气风暴。这凸显了迫切需要更好地了解可能导致快速气候变化的过程，以及对这种变化对英国的影响进行早期预警的潜力。为了满足这些需求，CANARI旨在提高对北极-北大西洋地区气候变率和变化对英国影响的理解，重点关注极端天气和潜在的快速破坏性变化。它将通过将NERC研究中心的专业知识和能力与英国气象局的一致活动结合起来，开发新的高分辨率耦合模型集合，改进基于过程的理解，并提供新的危害和影响模型来实现这一目标。CANARI将使英国在应对了解区域气候变化的挑战方面发挥国际领导作用，并提供有关对英国影响的详细信息。CANARI将在国际上作出重大贡献，例如世界气候研究和世界天气研究计划以及IPCC AR7。CANARI将为更广泛的研究界提供新的工具、模拟和合作机会。CANARI是与主要利益相关者共同开发的，包括英国政府部门（Defra、BEIS、CCC）以及水、卫生和金融部门（EA、英国公共卫生、CGFI、OASIS）。与我们的合作伙伴合作将使CANARI能够提供环境解决方案，并解决NERC交付计划的具体优先事项。CANARI的遗产将是对区域气候变化及其对英国影响的理解的一个步骤变化，使更有弹性的适应途径成为可能。

Extreme weather events can have substantial impacts. For instance: the extensive UK flooding during the stormy winters of 2013/14 and 2015/16 resulted in £3 billion of damage to property and livelihoods. During the summers of 2017, 2018, and 2019, European heatwaves resulted in over 2,500 excess deaths in the UK. Wind-storms can also cause substantial impacts; the extreme winds in Storm Ciara in Feb 2020 resulted in £1.4 billion of insured losses across Europe. Climate change could also impact on the Northwest European shelf seas, affecting the sustainable management of marine resources such as fisheries. Consequently, adapting to climate change and building resilience are high priorities for the UK Government, businesses and society. However, projections of the impacts of climate change on the UK remain subject to very large uncertainties. Particularly relevant are the next few decades, an important timeframe for climate change adaptation. There is an urgent need to understand whether current management strategies and climate adaptation plans are adequate in the light of potential changes to the UK's weather, climate and shelf seas. The weather and climate of the UK are substantially determined by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic. Many factors influence these circulation patterns but of particular concern for risk assessment is the potential for rapid or disruptive change. A crucial legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic is enhanced awareness of rapid, disruptive changes leading to cascading impacts and exposing systemic risks. The Arctic exerts strong, long-range influence over UK and European weather and climate by its controls on atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms such as the North Atlantic storm track, so that one of the most likely causes of disruptive regional change is the ongoing rapid Arctic warming, at twice the global mean rate. A major symptom of rapid Arctic warming is its progressive loss of sea ice. However, current climate models underestimate the observed decline of September sea ice area. This is likely due to models lacking or poorly representing key physical processes, eg, the low resolution of current models results in unrealistically weak oceanic boundary currents and atmospheric storms. This highlights the urgent need to better understand the processes that might result in rapid climate change, and the potential for early warning of the impacts of such changes on the UK.To address these needs CANARI aims to advance understanding of the impacts on the UK arising from climate variability and change in the Arctic-North Atlantic region, with a focus on extreme weather and the potential for rapid, disruptive change. It will achieve this by bringing together the expertise and capabilities of NERC's Research Centres with aligned activities in the UK Met Office to develop new high-resolution coupled model ensembles, improve process-based understanding and provide new hazard and impact modelling. CANARI will enable the UK to play an internationally-leading role in addressing the challenges of understanding regional climate change, and to provide detailed information about impacts on the UK.CANARI will make substantial contributions internationally, e.g. to the World Climate Research and the World Weather Research Programmes and to IPCC AR7. CANARI will provide new tools, simulations, and collaborative opportunities for the wider research community. CANARI has been co-developed with major stakeholders, including UK Government departments (Defra, BEIS, CCC) and water, health, and finance sectors (EA, Public Health England, CGFI, OASIS). Working with our partners will enable CANARI to deliver Environmental Solutions and to address specific priorities of the NERC Delivery Plan. The legacy of CANARI will be a step-change in the understanding of regional climate change and its impacts on the UK, enabling more resilient adaptation pathways.