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IMPETUS: Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision-Making

动力：改进干旱预测以促进用户决策

基本信息

批准号：
NE/L010488/1
负责人：
Leonard Shaffrey
金额：
$ 124.25万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL010488%2F1
关键词：
IMPETUS Improving Predictions Drought User

项目摘要

Droughts have severe impacts on societies, economies, agriculture and ecosystems. The 1975-76 UK drought had a devastating effect on the UK economy causing an estimated £3,500M loss to agriculture, £700M of subsidence damage to buildings and a £400M cost to the water industry (present day figures adjusted for inflation). Forward planning is critical for managing the impacts of drought, since early action enables stakeholders, such as public water supply and agricultural companies, to curb demand and to effectively manage diminishing water resources. Improved forecasts on drought management (monthly to seasonal) and planning timescales (seasonal to decadal) would be exceptionally valuable for effective drought management and for minimising the negative impacts of droughts.Droughts are complex events, with impacts dependent on meteorological, hydrological and land surface factors as well as on water demand and management. Consequently, drought forecasting has many components: forecasting meteorological drought (deficit of rainfall), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) and hydrological drought (decline in surface water and groundwater), forecasting the consequences of drought for water availability and forecasting the effects of drought management. All of these are uncertain and any improvement in decision-making needs to consider all aspects of the forecast process. IMPETUS focuses on meteorological and hydrological forecasting linked to innovative methods for forecasting local domestic water demand during drought.IMPETUS is an interdisciplinary proposal that brings together scientists from the meteorological, land surface, surface water and groundwater communities and social scientists from the water demand and forecast usability communities. The project involves internationally-leading scientists and social scientist from three NERC Research Centres (NCAS, BGS and CEH), four leading universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and Southampton), the Met Office and ECMWF. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. This will be achieved by improving meteorological, hydrological and water demand forecasts and how they are combined to produce drought forecasts. This will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for decision making. IMPETUS addresses WP2 (Forecasting Drought) of the UK Droughts and Water Scarcity call.We envisage IMPETUS producing a range of high-impact publications in meteorology, hydrology, hydro-meteorological forecasting, water demand modelling and the usability of drought forecasts. The outcomes from IMPETUS will also benefit a wide range of stakeholders. These include informing the Environment Agency (EA) on the ability of the hydrological models used by EA for water resource management to represent drought, and furthering the understanding that underpins key operational projects, including the Hydrological Outlooks project. IMPETUS outcomes will also benefit the Met Office and ECMWF through an improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and recommendations for improving the representation of drought in operational meteorological forecast systems and climate models. Finally, IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Particular examples of this have already been identified through initial discussions with stakeholders including precipitation forecasts for Thames Water and soil moisture forecasts for the agricultural sector.

干旱对社会、经济、农业和生态系统造成严重影响。1975年至1976年的英国干旱对英国经济造成了毁灭性的影响，估计造成了35亿英镑的农业损失，7亿英镑的建筑物沉降损失和4亿英镑的水务行业成本（目前的数字经通货膨胀调整）。前瞻性规划对于管理干旱影响至关重要，因为及早采取行动可使公共供水和农业公司等利益攸关方抑制需求，有效管理日益减少的水资源。改进对干旱管理的预测（每月到季节）和规划时间尺度（季节到十年），对于有效的干旱管理和尽量减少干旱的不利影响，将是极其宝贵的。因此，干旱预报有许多组成部分：预报气象干旱（降雨量不足）、农业干旱（土壤湿度不足）和水文干旱（地表水和地下水减少），预报干旱对水供应的影响，以及预报干旱管理的效果。所有这些都是不确定的，决策的任何改进都需要考虑预测过程的各个方面。IMPETUS侧重于气象和水文预测，并与干旱期间当地生活用水需求预测的创新方法相联系。IMPETUS是一个跨学科的提案，汇集了来自气象、地表水、地表水和地下水社区的科学家以及来自水需求和预测可用性社区的社会科学家。该项目涉及来自三个NERC研究中心（NCAS，BGS和CEH），四所领先大学（牛津，阅读，纽卡斯尔和南安普顿），气象局和ECMWF的国际领先科学家和社会科学家。IMPETUS旨在改善英国干旱的月度至十年时间尺度的预测，这将导致改进决策过程的发展。这将通过改进气象、水文和水需求预测以及如何将它们结合起来进行干旱预测来实现。这项工作将与利益攸关方一起进行，以确保干旱预报与决策相关。IMPETUS解决了英国干旱和水资源短缺问题的WP2（预测干旱）问题。我们设想IMPETUS在气象学、水文学、水文气象预报、水需求建模和干旱预报的可用性方面出版一系列具有高影响力的出版物。IMPETUS的成果也将使广泛的利益攸关方受益。这些措施包括向环境署通报环境署用于水资源管理的水文模型反映干旱的能力，并进一步加深对包括水文展望项目在内的关键业务项目的理解。IMPETUS的成果还将使气象局和ECMWF受益，因为它可以更好地理解气象干旱的驱动因素，并提出改进业务气象预报系统和气候模型中干旱代表性的建议。最后，IMPETUS旨在改善月度至十年期干旱预测，这将使利益相关者能够更好地抑制需求并更有效地管理日益减少的水资源。特别是，IMPETUS旨在让利益攸关方参与进来，评估他们对干旱预报信息的需求，根据预报共同制作干旱指标，以确保它们支持现实世界的决策。通过与利益攸关方的初步讨论，已经确定了这方面的具体例子，包括泰晤士水务公司的降水预报和农业部门的土壤湿度预报。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection

DOI：
10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
Climate Dynamics
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
J. Beverley;S. Woolnough;L. Baker;Stephanie J. Johnson;A. Weisheimer;C. O’Reilly
通讯作者：
J. Beverley;S. Woolnough;L. Baker;Stephanie J. Johnson;A. Weisheimer;C. O’Reilly

Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation