Advances in halocarbon research to ensure success of the next phase of the Montreal Protocol in protecting the ozone layer and climate

卤化碳研究取得进展，确保《蒙特利尔议定书》下一阶段在保护臭氧层和气候方面取得成功

• 批准号: NE/X003582/1
• 负责人: Ryan Hossaini
• 金额: $ 45.56万
• 依托单位: Lancaster University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX003582%2F1
• 关键词: Advances; halocarbon; research; ensure; success

With the Kigali Amendment coming into force in 2019, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has entered a major new phase in which the production and use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) will be controlled in most major economies. This landmark achievement will enhance the Protocol's already-substantial benefits to climate, in addition to its success in protecting the ozone layer. However, recent scientific advances have shown that challenges lie ahead for the Montreal Protocol, due to the newly discovered production of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) thought to be phased-out, rapid growth of ozone-depleting compounds not controlled under the Protocol, and the potential for damaging impacts of halocarbon degradation products. This proposal tackles the most urgent scientific questions surrounding these challenges by combining state-of-the-art techniques in atmospheric measurements, laboratory experiments and advanced numerical modelling. We will: 1) significantly expand atmospheric measurement coverage to better understand the global distribution of halocarbon emissions and to identify previously unknown atmospheric trends, 2) combine industry models and atmospheric data to improve our understanding of the relationship between production (the quantity controlled under the Protocol), "banks" of halocarbons stored in buildings and products, and emissions to the atmosphere, 3) determine recent and likely future trends of unregulated, short-lived halocarbons, and implications for the timescale of recovery of the ozone layer, 4) explore the complex atmospheric chemistry of the newest generation of halocarbons and determine whether breakdown products have the potential to contribute to climate change or lead to unforeseen negative environmental consequences, 5) better quantify the influence of halocarbons on climate and refine the climate- and ozone-depletion-related metrics used to compare the effects of halocarbons in international agreements and in the design of possible mitigation strategies. This work will be carried out by a consortium of leaders in the field of halocarbon research, who have an extensive track record of contributing to Montreal Protocol bodies and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ensuring lasting impact of the new developments that will be made.

随着《基加利修正案》于2019年生效，《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》进入了一个重要的新阶段，在这一阶段，大多数主要经济体都将控制氢氟碳化合物（HFCs）的生产和使用。这一具有里程碑意义的成就将加强《议定书》在保护臭氧层方面取得的成功，同时也将加强《议定书》已经对气候产生的重大惠益。然而，最近的科学进展表明，《蒙特利尔议定书》面临着挑战，因为新发现了被认为应逐步淘汰的消耗臭氧层物质的生产，《议定书》未加控制的消耗臭氧层化合物迅速增加，以及卤化碳降解产物可能产生破坏性影响。该提案通过结合大气测量、实验室实验和先进数值建模方面的最新技术，解决了围绕这些挑战的最紧迫的科学问题。我们将：1）显著扩大大气测量覆盖范围，以更好地了解卤化碳排放的全球分布，并确定以前未知的大气趋势，2）将联合收割机行业模型和大气数据相结合，以提高我们对生产之间关系的理解（《议定书》控制的数量）、储存在建筑物和产品中的卤化碳“库存”以及向大气的排放，3）确定未受管制、寿命短的卤化碳的近期和可能的未来趋势，以及对臭氧层恢复时间表的影响，4）探索最新一代卤化碳的复杂大气化学，并确定分解产物是否有可能促成气候变化或导致不可预见的负面环境后果，5）更好地量化卤化碳对气候的影响，并完善与气候和臭氧消耗有关的指标，以便在国际协定中和在设计可能的缓解战略时比较卤化碳的影响。这项工作将由卤化碳研究领域的领导人组成的一个联合会开展，这些领导人在为《蒙特利尔议定书》各机构和政府间气候变化专门委员会做出贡献方面有着广泛的记录，确保将取得的新进展产生持久的影响。