Ecosystem Change, Offshore Wind, Net Gain and Seabirds (ECOWINGS)

英国政府目前面临着严重的能源安全风险，包括与全球气候紧急情况相关的去碳化、最近的能源价格上涨以及东欧冲突导致的碳氢化合物供应威胁。鉴于这些事件，提高了可再生能源发电的目标。海上风能(OW)将为实现这些目标做出重大贡献，但时间表要求OW部署速度增加25%。英国政府认为，这种加速可以通过在更具战略意义的层面上进行环境评估、实施基于自然的设计标准和减少繁文缛节来实现。海鸟的影响是限制北海英国海域OW扩张的首要同意问题(特别是黑腿山猫、普通鹰嘴鸟、斑嘴鸟和大西洋海雀)。解决这些问题的政策建议包括在更具战略性的层面上进行环境评估，采取战略性补偿措施，以及为海鸟种群和更广泛的海洋生态系统带来净收益，这些生态系统对气候变化具有强大的抵抗力。我们的项目解决了三个关键的研究问题(RQ)，旨在提供迫切需要的建议，以确保这些政策的实施方式同时为海鸟和生态系统带来净收益和净收益。OW对海鸟和更广泛的生态系统的累积影响是什么？这些影响是如何随容量而扩大的？RQ2。需要多大规模和程度的补偿措施才能为海鸟和整个生态系统提供净收益的战略余地，同时避免不可预见的后果？RQ3。我们如何在战略薪酬中纳入足够的净空空间，以确保其对未来气候变化的预测保持稳健？我们的项目将重点放在苏格兰东南部的关键北海OW-海鸟相互作用区，但所有方法都将适用于英国其他地区。为了回答研究问题，我们将使用一系列相互关联的生态系统、海鸟、饲料鱼和浮游动物动力学模型以及新的支持数据。这些模式将以创新的新方式部署，以应对政策驱动的挑战，并通过在线工具向利益攸关方提供成果。新的数据收集将涉及自主水下和遥控无人水面航行器(AUV和USV)的新使用，它们协同工作，并与OW行业委托进行的数字航海调查相结合，以支持OW行业现有的环境方案，并作为皇家地产OWEC方案的一部分。联合的AUV和USV调查将收集关于尚未开发用于OW的控制区和现有OW养殖场的饲料鱼(珊瑚和小鱼/鲱鱼)斑块的多频率水声数据。同时进行的航空调查将收集有关海鸟的高分辨率数据。这些匹配的捕食者-猎物数据将提供对捕食者-猎物相互作用的关键基于过程的理解，这是估计对海鸟的累积影响(RQ1)和制定有效的战略补偿(RQ2)所需的。支持RQ3关于战略补偿措施气候防御模型的数据将来自英国AMM7海洋物理和化学生物地球化学模型在IPCC RCP8.5排放情景下的预测。开发人员和利益相关者将在项目早期参与设计一套潜在的战略补偿方案，这些方案将随着项目的进展逐步进行测试。将每年编写政策简报，列出迄今的调查结果和咨询意见，以确保在该项目中开发的新证据和工具迅速纳入决策过程。

The UK government currently faces an acute risk to energy security from de-carbonisation associated with the global climate emergency, recent energy price rises and the threat of hydrocarbon supplies due to the conflict in eastern Europe. In the light of these events, targets for electricity generation from renewable sources have been increased. Offshore Wind (OW) will make a significant contribution to meeting these targets, but the timeline necessitates a 25% increase in the pace of OW deployment. The UK Government believes this acceleration can be achieved by making environmental assessments at a more strategic level, implementing nature-based design standards and reducing red tape. Seabird impacts are the top consenting issue inhibiting OW expansion in the UK sector of the North Sea (especially black-legged kittiwake, common guillemot, razorbill and Atlantic puffin). Policy proposals for overcoming these issues include making environmental assessments at a more strategic level, adopting strategic compensation measures, and delivering net gain to seabird populations and the wider marine ecosystem that is robust to climate change. Our project addresses three key Research Questions (RQs) designed to deliver urgently needed advice to ensure that these policies are implemented in ways which simultaneously deliver both OW expansion and net gain for seabirds and the ecosystem:RQ1. What are the cumulative impacts of OW on seabirds and on the wider ecosystem, and how do these scale with capacity? RQ2. What scale and extent of compensatory measures are required to provide strategic headroom of net gain to seabirds and the whole ecosystem while avoiding unforeseen consequences? RQ3. How can we incorporate sufficient headroom in strategic compensation to ensure it remains robust to future projections of climate change? Our project will focus on the key North Sea OW-seabird interaction area off southeast Scotland, but all the methods will be transferable to other UK regions. To answer the Research Questions we will use a range of inter-related models of ecosystem, seabird, forage fish and zooplankton dynamics together with new supporting data. The models will be deployed in innovative new ways to address the policy-driven challenges and make the results accessible to stakeholders through online tools. The new data collection will involve novel use of autonomous underwater and remote controlled uncrewed surface vehicles (AUV and USV) working in concert and integrated with the digital aerial seabird surveys commissioned in support of existing environmental programmes by the OW industry and as part of the Crown Estate OWEC programme. The combined AUV and USV surveys will gather multi-frequency hydroacoustic data on forage fish (sandeel and sprat/herring) patchiness in control areas not yet developed for OW, and existing OW farms. The coincident aerial surveys will gather high resolution data on seabirds. These matched predator-prey data will provide crucial process-based understanding on predator-prey interactions needed to estimate cumulative impacts on seabirds (RQ1) and develop effective strategic compensation (RQ2). Data to support RQ3 on modelling of climate-proofing for strategic compensation measures will be assembled from UK AMM7 biogeochemical model projections of ocean physics and chemistry under the IPCC RCP8.5 emissions scenario. Developers and stakeholders will be engaged early in the project to design a suite of potential strategic compensation scenarios which will be incrementally tested as the project progresses. Policy briefs setting out the findings and advice-to-date will be produced at annual intervals to ensure that the new evidence and tools developed in the project are fed rapidly into the decision-making process.