The Influence of Climate Change on Future Ocean Conditions: Implications for Offshore Renewable Energy

为了应对全球气候紧急情况，英国已承诺到2050年实现碳中和，大曼彻斯特承诺到2038年实现碳中和。英国和大曼彻斯特地区碳预算的一个主要组成部分是电力部门。因此，需要努力确保通过可持续的方式提供电力（区域和国家发电）。英国是一个被充满活力的沃茨和强风包围的岛国，有可能通过海上可再生能源（ORE）技术产生大部分电力。因此，英国已经从海上风电中生产了约10%的电力，到2030年这一数字将增加到30%。随着英国越来越依赖ORE发电，从生存能力和预期发电量的角度，了解它们在恶劣条件下运行变得越来越重要。虽然ORE技术对于应对气候变化很重要，但它们必须运行的条件也会受到气候变化的影响。未来的天气状况存在很大的不确定性。关键问题包括：破坏性风暴的严重程度和频率是否会增加？极端事件如何影响未来风能/波浪能设备的设计决策？平均能量（波浪、风）水平将如何变化？这些如何改变现有ORE部署的有效性和适用性？这将如何影响未来部署的最佳位置、设计和操作？维修船能否在预测的天气条件和窗口中安全运行？这将如何影响能源生产？该项目旨在评估当前和未来ORE部署对气候变化影响的敏感性和不确定性。开发以英国为中心的波浪模型将能够根据不同的气候情景评估预测的风和波浪状况。减少未来条件的不确定性将有助于改善ORE的设计、可靠性和位置选择;随后增加容量系数（能源产量）和平准能源成本（LCOE）。因此，该项目涉及相关的EPSRC主题：与环境变化，流体动力学和水工程生活。

In response to the global climate emergency, the UK has committed to becoming carbon-neutral by 2050 with Greater Manchester committing to an even more ambitious plan to become carbon-neutral by 2038. A major component of the carbon budget for both the UK and the Greater Manchester region is the electricity sector. As such, efforts are required to ensure electricity (both regionally and nationally generated) through sustainable means. The UK - an island nation surrounded by energetic waters and strong winds - has the potential to generate large proportions of its electricity through offshore renewable (ORE) technologies. As such, the UK already produces around 10% of its electricity from offshore wind with this number set to increase to 30% by 2030. Complimenting this 30% is an expected increase in contribution from nascent wave and tidal energy sectors.As the UK becomes increasingly reliant on ORE for its electricity, it becomes increasingly important to understand the harsh conditions they operate in; both from the perspective of survivability and expected energy yield. While ORE technologies are important for combatting climate change the conditions they must operate in are also subject to the effects of climate change. Significant uncertainty exists about future weather conditions. Key questions include:Will the severity and frequency of damaging storms increase? How do extreme events affect design decisions for future wind/wave energy devices? How will mean energy (wave, wind) levels change?How do these alter the effectiveness and suitability of existing ORE deployments? How does this affect the optimal locations, design and operation of future deployments?Can maintenance vessels safely operate in the predicted weather conditions and windows? How does this influence energy production?This project aims to assess the sensitivity, and uncertainty in performance, of current and future ORE deployments to the effects of climate change. Development of a UK-centred wave model will enable assessment of the predicted wind and wave conditions based on different climate scenarios. Reducing the uncertainty of the future conditions will facilitate improved design, reliability, and location choice for ORE; subsequently increasing the capacity factor (energy yield) and levelised cost of energy (LCOE). As such, this project pertains to the relevant EPSRC themes: Living With Environmental Change, Fluid Dynamics, and Water Engineering.