Demographic Effects--Elder Households & Caregiving Needs

这个R03项目使用美国人口普查的微观数据集调查人口对老年家庭和护理需求的影响；全国家庭和住户调查；全国家庭成长调查；全国长期护理调查；以及进一步开发的多维家庭投影模型profamily。需要审查的问题包括：正在进行的和预期的未来人口变化将如何影响未来独居、或仅与配偶、或与子女或其他亲属或在养老院生活的老年人的数量、财产和比例？有多少人要同时照顾年迈的父母和年幼的孩子？这些变化对老年人的护理需求和健康服务项目有什么影响？为了实现上述重要的实质性目标，将进行广泛的经验分析和创新的方法发展。这些包括：(a)按种族对美国家庭的分析和预测，重点是老年人；(b)评估未来的护理需求，进行政策分析并提出合理建议；(c)方法调查和创新新的人口预测程序，以进一步发展profamily模型，使其更适合预测美国老年家庭和评估护理需求。在R03先导计划中提出的研究，将为随后在R01计划中提出的有关长者功能状况、亲子亲近度和生活安排的研究奠定坚实的基础。

This R03 project investigates demographic effects on elderly households and care giving needs using the micro data sets of the U.S. censuses; National Surveys of Families and Households; The National Surveys of Family Growth; National Long Term Care Surveys; and a further developed multidimensional family household projection model called ProFamy. Among the issues to be examined are the following: How will ongoing and anticipated future demographic changes affect the future numbers and properties and proportions of elderly persons who live alone, or with the spouse only, or with children or other relatives, or in nursing homes? How many persons will have to care for both old parents and young children? What would be the implications of such changes on care giving needs, and health service programs for elderly? To achieve the important substantive aims outlined above, extensive empirical analyses and innovative methodological development will be conducted. These include: (a) analysis and projections of U.S. family households by race with a focus on elderly; (b) assessments of future care giving needs and conduct policy analysis and make sound recommendations; (c) methodological investigations and innovation of new demographic projection procedures to further develop ProFamy model and make it more appropriate to project U.S. elderly family households and assess care giving needs. The research proposed in this R03 pilot project will create a solid base for research to be subsequently proposed as a R01 project on projecting elderly functional status, parent- child proximity, and living arrangement.