Sea level rise under climate change: modelling the Pliocene warm period for improved projections of the future

海平面变化是与气候变化相关的最重要的灾害之一。未来几个世纪对SLC的最大和最不确定的贡献是南极冰盖（AIS）的融化。为了消除这种不确定性，需要气候变化下AIS的鲁棒概率模拟。本研究将使用数值冰盖模型（BISICLES）和统计模型（高斯过程仿真（GPE））来预测AIS质量损失到2300年。它将使用一种“集合”方法，对控制AIS动力学的因素中的不确定性进行采样，并对其对SLC的贡献进行概率预测。冰盖将模拟过去一段时间的大气二氧化碳浓度，（约350-400 ppm），但全球平均温度较高（比工业化前高约3-4 oC）和更高的海平面（现代以上10- 30米）：上新世中期暖期（mPWP），这些将与古海平面的重建进行比较，以确定哪些模型配置最真实地模拟AIS-并且应该在未来的预测中给予最大的权重。通过使用这种方法，这里提出的项目将提供更强大的概率预测的多百年AIS的贡献SLC。

Sea level change (SLC) is one of the most significant hazards associated with climatechange. The largest and most uncertain contribution to SLC in the coming centuries ismelting from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). To characterise this uncertainty requires robustprobabilistic simulations of the AIS under climate change.This study will use numerical ice sheet modelling (BISICLES) and statistical modelling(Gaussian Process Emulation (GPE)) to project AIS mass loss over to 2300. It will use an'ensemble' approach sample uncertainty in factors governing AIS dynamics and generateprobabilistic projections of its contribution to SLC.To evaluate the success of BISICLES under warm climate conditions, the ice sheet will besimulated for a past period with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations similar topresent (~350-400 ppm) but higher global mean temperatures (~3-4 oC abovepreindustrial) and much higher sea levels (10-30m above modern): the mid-Pliocene warmperiod (mPWP), around 3Ma.These will be compared with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level to identify which modelconfigurations most realistically simulate the AIS- and should be given greatest weight in thefuture projections. By using this approach, the project proposed here will provide morerobust probabilistic projections of the multi-centennial AIS contribution to SLC.