Welfare Benefits and Family Structure: A Reconcillation

福利与家庭结构：和解

• 批准号: 6434698
• 负责人: Robert A Moffitt
• 金额: $ 21.76万
• 依托单位: JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-08-01 至 2007-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6434698
• 关键词: behavioral /social science research tag; employment /unemployment; family structure /dynamics; household; human data; income; marriage /marital status; mathematical model; meta analysis; public assistance

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): A substantial literature on the effect of welfare benefits on fertility, marriage, co-habitation, and family structure in general has grown up over the last decade. The central tendency of this literature tends to suggest that welfare benefits have some effect in the direction many have some effect in the direction many have hypothesized (e.g., higher welfare benefits leading to lesser marriage rates and greater nonmarital fertility rates) but there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the effect, and possibly even its existence, because of the large dispersion in estimates across different studies. This lack of consensus in research findings has weakened the impact of the research on policy-makers, who often regard the academic research as inconclusive or, alternatively, as capable of supporting any conclusion. This lack of consensus in research findings has weakened the impact of the research on policy-makers, who often regard the academic research as inconclusive or alternatively, as capable of supporting any conclusion. This project will address this problem by conducting a series of replication, robustness, and reconciliation studies in an attempt to narrow the differences across past research efforts and in an attempt to build a consensus for the existence and size of effects. The project will be divided into a primary phase in which difference across studies are explained and a secondary phase in which "best" models are chosen using statistical specification tests and new specifications tested. In the major and primary phase, the estimates from several major studies will first be replicated using the same data sets, models, and estimating the models used in each paper on the data sets used in the other papers, using the greatest extent possible the same samples, variable definitions, and econometric methods; then the differences between studies between studies will be traced to differences in each of these factors--differences in the underlying data sets for the same variables; in variable definition; in subsampled populations; and in model specification and econometric method. The secondary phase will consist of specification test to choose among the alternative model specifications as well as a more detailed examination of several hypotheses involving the importance of family background, the influence of male and female wages, and alternative statistical specifications.

描述（由申请人提供）：关于影响的大量文献 生育、婚姻、同居和家庭结构方面的福利 过去十年来，将军不断成长。这个集中趋势 文献倾向于表明福利金对 许多方向对许多人假设的方向有一定的影响（例如， 较高的福利导致较低的结婚率和较高的非婚姻率 生育率），但存在相当大的不确定性 影响的大小，甚至可能存在，因为大 不同研究中估计值的分散性。这种缺乏共识的情况 研究结果削弱了研究对决策者的影响，决策者 通常认为学术研究是不确定的，或者， 能够支持任何结论。研究缺乏共识 研究结果削弱了研究对政策制定者的影响，他们经常 认为学术研究没有结论，或者有能力 支持任何结论。该项目将通过进行 尝试进行一系列重复性、稳健性和协调性研究 缩小过去研究工作的差异并试图 就影响的存在及其大小达成共识。该项目将是 分为主要阶段，解释研究之间的差异 第二阶段是使用统计选择“最佳”模型 规格测试和新规格测试。在主要和初级 阶段，几项主要研究的估计将首先使用 每篇论文中使用的数据集、模型和估计模型相同 其他论文中使用的数据集，尽可能使用相同的 样本、变量定义和计量经济学方法；然后是差异 研究之间的研究之间的差异将被追溯到这些研究之间的差异 因素——相同变量的基础数据集的差异；在 变量定义；在二次抽样总体中；并在型号规格和 计量经济学方法。第二阶段将包括规范测试 在替代型号规格以及更详细的规格中进行选择 对涉及家庭重要性的几个假设的检验 背景、男性和女性工资的影响以及替代统计 规格。