Research on the Effects of the U.S. Welfare System on the Low Income Population

在这项申请中，提出了第二个五年的功勋奖励的请求，最初的标题是“福利 福利和家庭结构：一种调和。前五年的中心任务是复制 关于福利对家庭结构的影响的几项最好和最著名的研究， 协调他们不同的发现，以达成对这一重要影响的共识估计，并得出 对政策的建议。头五年在这项任务上取得了很大进展，这一点很重要 调查结果已经出来了。复制所有四项主要研究都遇到了相当大的困难， 用于基于已发表的研究和可用数据的初始复制部分或全部失败。之后 与最初的四位作者进行了大量的工作和讨论，原始研究的结果得到了复制 四个中的三个是完整的。在一个案例中，调查结果被推翻，因为在 最初的分析，在另一项研究中，发现被削弱了，在根本不可能的研究中 重复使用，最好的估计结果显示效果要弱得多。因此，前五年的分析 极大地改变了从这些研究中得出的结论。在奖项的下一阶段， 建议继续这项重要的工作，转而制定和估计共同模式 根据所有数据集和最佳模型的公式，将得出哪些结论总体上 有证据表明，福利对家庭结构的影响是。分析也将是 延长至1996年后期间。最后，建议将该项目的范围扩大到包括其他 主要调查员与福利研究有关的活动.具体地说，建议延长 范围包括：(I)对三个城市的研究，这是由NICHD资助的一项关于低收入者的主要调查 美国三项研究中的人口，以检查他们在福利改革后的行为和幸福感；(Ii)分析 对目前正在进行的关于同居和婚姻的州TANF规则的调查 研究人员的指导；(Iii)对1996年美国劳动力供应和家庭结构反应的研究 福利改革立法；及。(Iv)为研究福利改革及其影响而计划的几项活动。 美国的低收入人口。鉴于范围的扩大，该项目已重新命名， “关于美国福利制度对低收入人群影响的研究。”

In this application, a request is made for a second five years of a MERIT award initially titled "Welfare Benefits and Family Structure: A Reconciliation." The central task in the first five years was to replicate several of the best and most well-known studies of the effect of welfare benefits on family structure, to reconcile their disparate findings to arrive at a consensus estimate of that important effect, and to draw recommendations for policy. Much progress has been made in the first five years on this task and important findings have been made. Considerable difficulty was experienced in replicating all the four main studies, for initial replication based on the published study and upon available data failed in part or in whole. After much work and discussion with the original four authors, the findings of the original studies were replicated in full for three of the four. In one case the findings were overturned because of an error made in the original analysis, in another the findings were weakened, and in the study which could not at all be replicated, the best estimates showed much weaker effects. Thus the analysis in the first five years significantly changes the conclusions drawn from these studies.'ln the next period of the award, it is proposed to continue this important exercise by moving to formulation and estimation of a common model on all data sets and the formulation of a best model, and conclusions will be drawn on what the overall evidence suggests the effect of welfare benefits on family structure to be. The analysis will also be extended to the post-1996 period. Finally, it is proposed to extend the scope of the project to include other welfare-research related activities of the principal'investigator. Specifically, it is proposed to extend the scope to include (i) research on The Three-City Study, a major NICHD-funded survey of the low income population in three US studies to examine their behavior and well-being after welfare reform; (ii) analysis of a survey of state TANF rules regarding cohabitation and marriage currently underway under the principal investigator's direction; (iii) the study of the labor supply and family structure responses to the 1996 US welfare reform legislation; and (iv) a few activities planned for the study of welfare reform and its effects on the low-income population in the U.S. Given the expansion of scope, the project has been retitled, "Research on the Effects of the U.S. Welfare System on the Low Income Population."