Managing the effect of weather on infrastructure projects through advanced analytics

通过高级分析管理天气对基础设施项目的影响

• 批准号: 1942842
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1942842
• 关键词: Managing; effect; weather; infrastructure; projects

The student is addressing questions that inform on how uncertainty in weather forecasting can be incorporated into project planning on large construction/infrastructure projects that are weather-sensitive. Questions such as: > What are the appropriate mathematical approaches to describing project tasks and interactions for handling delay uncertainties? > What methods of statistical inference are best applied to the problem? > How does the inclusion of probabilistic decision-making for weather delays impact on engineering project duration?will be addressed. The novel contribution of the project comes from the application of mathematical models that allow the combination of discrete and continuous data as part of statistical inference of weather delays to construction projects. The student is, therefore, developing understanding of statistical modelling approaches through model development and application, as well as the sensitivity of construction/infrastructure projects to weather.Aim: To develop a stochastic network model for making better (time- and cost-saving) planning and operational decisions for weather-sensitive infrastructure construction and operation project activities. Objectives:1. Identify relate isolated and combined weather events responsible for disruption to pre-planned construction and operation activities that may ultimately result in project delays. This will be performed by conducting an exhaustive literature review while counting on the records/knowledge of past and current projects made available through the industry partner. 2. Develop a statistical network model of construction project activity which enables uncertainty in weather influence, as well as uncertainty in forecast information to be used to evaluate the probability of project delay associated with weather. Evaluate the models ability to address weather impacts on construction project completion.3. Expand the network model to account for spatial variation of weather impacts for dispersed projects and demonstrate impact on project delay when optimising project sequencing for weather.4. Incorporate ensemble forecast products to the models to address the impact of different forecast lead times to project planning.

该学生正在解决有关如何将天气预报的不确定性纳入对天气敏感的大型建筑/基础设施项目的项目规划中的问题。诸如此类的问题： > 描述项目任务和处理延迟不确定性的交互作用的适当数学方法是什么？ > 哪些统计推断方法最适合解决该问题？ > 将如何解决天气延误对工程项目工期影响的概率决策问题？该项目的新颖贡献来自于数学模型的应用，该模型允许将离散数据和连续数据结合起来，作为建筑项目天气延误统计推断的一部分。因此，学生通过模型开发和应用，加深对统计建模方法的理解，以及建筑/基础设施项目对天气的敏感性。目标：开发随机网络模型，以便为天气敏感的基础设施建设和运营项目活动做出更好（节省时间和成本）的规划和运营决策。目标：1。确定导致预先计划的施工和运营活动中断并最终导致项目延误的相关孤立和组合天气事件。这将通过进行详尽的文献综述来完成，同时依靠行业合作伙伴提供的过去和当前项目的记录/知识。 2. 开发建设项目活动的统计网络模型，利用天气影响的不确定性以及预测信息的不确定性来评估与天气相关的项目延误的概率。评估模型解决天气对建设项目完成影响的能力。3．扩展网络模型以考虑分散项目的天气影响的空间变化，并在优化天气项目排序时展示对项目延误的影响。4。将集合预报产品纳入模型中，以解决不同预报提前期对项目规划的影响。