Managing the effect of weather on infrastructure projects through advanced analytics

这名学生正在回答的问题是如何将天气预报的不确定性纳入对天气敏感的大型建筑/基础设施项目的项目规划中。问题，如：什么是适当的数学方法来描述项目任务和相互作用以处理延误不确定性？&gt；哪些统计推断方法最适合应用于这个问题？&gt；如何包括天气延误的概率决策对工程项目工期的影响？将讨论。该项目的新贡献来自于数学模型的应用，该模型允许将离散和连续数据结合起来，作为对建筑项目天气延误的统计推断的一部分。因此，学生将通过模型开发和应用以及建筑/基础设施项目对天气的敏感性来加深对统计建模方法的理解。目的：开发一个随机网络模型，为对天气敏感的基础设施建设和运营项目活动做出更好的(节省时间和成本的)规划和运营决策。目标：1.确定导致预先计划的建设和运营活动中断的相关孤立和组合天气事件，这些事件可能最终导致项目延误。这将通过进行详尽的文献审查来进行，同时依靠通过行业合作伙伴提供的过去和当前项目的记录/知识。2.建立建设项目活动的统计网络模型，使天气影响的不确定性和预报信息的不确定性能够用于评估与天气有关的项目延误的概率。评估模型应对天气影响建设项目竣工的能力。扩展网络模型以考虑分散项目的天气影响的空间变化，并展示在优化针对天气的项目排序时对项目延误的影响。将集合预测产品纳入模型，以解决不同预测提前期对项目计划的影响。

The student is addressing questions that inform on how uncertainty in weather forecasting can be incorporated into project planning on large construction/infrastructure projects that are weather-sensitive. Questions such as: > What are the appropriate mathematical approaches to describing project tasks and interactions for handling delay uncertainties? > What methods of statistical inference are best applied to the problem? > How does the inclusion of probabilistic decision-making for weather delays impact on engineering project duration?will be addressed. The novel contribution of the project comes from the application of mathematical models that allow the combination of discrete and continuous data as part of statistical inference of weather delays to construction projects. The student is, therefore, developing understanding of statistical modelling approaches through model development and application, as well as the sensitivity of construction/infrastructure projects to weather.Aim: To develop a stochastic network model for making better (time- and cost-saving) planning and operational decisions for weather-sensitive infrastructure construction and operation project activities. Objectives:1. Identify relate isolated and combined weather events responsible for disruption to pre-planned construction and operation activities that may ultimately result in project delays. This will be performed by conducting an exhaustive literature review while counting on the records/knowledge of past and current projects made available through the industry partner. 2. Develop a statistical network model of construction project activity which enables uncertainty in weather influence, as well as uncertainty in forecast information to be used to evaluate the probability of project delay associated with weather. Evaluate the models ability to address weather impacts on construction project completion.3. Expand the network model to account for spatial variation of weather impacts for dispersed projects and demonstrate impact on project delay when optimising project sequencing for weather.4. Incorporate ensemble forecast products to the models to address the impact of different forecast lead times to project planning.