Mathematical modelling to enhance preparedness for emergence of midge-borne viruses in the UK

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The European equine population is increasingly threatened by emerging viruses. Notable amongst these is African horse sickness virus (AHSV), which is transmitted by biting midges. Recent outbreaks of the closely-related bluetongue virus (BTV) illustrate the potential for future incursion of AHSV, with far-reaching impacts. Similarly, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was unknown until it emerged in European livestock in 2011; both BTV and SBV are thought to have reached the UK as a result of infected midges being blown across the English Channel. The aim of this project is to enhance preparedness for emergence of AHSV in the UK. Mathematical models to assess the risk of introduction and spread of AHSV will be developed using existing knowledge of the transmission and spread of this virus, as well as novel information on the demographics of the equine population in the UK and identity of midges trapped in close proximity to dense equine populations. The AHSV model will be based on an existing model for the spread of BTV. Model development will include a sensitivity analysis of model parameters to assess the uncertainty of model predictions, because there is sparser information available about the demographics of the equine population than about the population of farm animals affected by BTV. When the model has been parameterised for AHSV, it will be used to estimate the scale of possible AHSV outbreaks and the potential for this virus to persist in the UK. The model will also be used to test the relative effectiveness of different control options (including vaccines, vector control, insect repellents, housing, decoys, equine culling and movement restrictions).