Mathematical modelling to enhance preparedness for emergence of midge-borne viruses in the UK

数学模型可增强英国对蠓传播病毒出现的防备能力

• 批准号: 1944283
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Nottingham
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1944283
• 关键词: Mathematical; modelling; enhance; preparedness; emergence

The European equine population is increasingly threatened by emerging viruses. Notable amongst these is African horse sickness virus (AHSV), which is transmitted by biting midges. Recent outbreaks of the closely-related bluetongue virus (BTV) illustrate the potential for future incursion of AHSV, with far-reaching impacts. Similarly, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was unknown until it emerged in European livestock in 2011; both BTV and SBV are thought to have reached the UK as a result of infected midges being blown across the English Channel. The aim of this project is to enhance preparedness for emergence of AHSV in the UK. Mathematical models to assess the risk of introduction and spread of AHSV will be developed using existing knowledge of the transmission and spread of this virus, as well as novel information on the demographics of the equine population in the UK and identity of midges trapped in close proximity to dense equine populations. The AHSV model will be based on an existing model for the spread of BTV. Model development will include a sensitivity analysis of model parameters to assess the uncertainty of model predictions, because there is sparser information available about the demographics of the equine population than about the population of farm animals affected by BTV. When the model has been parameterised for AHSV, it will be used to estimate the scale of possible AHSV outbreaks and the potential for this virus to persist in the UK. The model will also be used to test the relative effectiveness of different control options (including vaccines, vector control, insect repellents, housing, decoys, equine culling and movement restrictions).

欧洲马群日益受到新出现病毒的威胁。其中值得注意的是非洲马病病毒（AHSV），它是通过咬蚊传播的。最近爆发的密切相关的蓝舌病毒（BTV）说明了未来AHSV入侵的可能性，并具有深远的影响。同样，施马伦伯格病毒（SBV）直到2011年在欧洲牲畜中出现才为人所知；BTV和SBV都被认为是由于受感染的蠓被吹过英吉利海峡而到达英国的。该项目的目的是加强对英国出现AHSV的准备。将利用有关该病毒传播和传播的现有知识，以及有关英国马种群人口统计数据和被困在密集马种群附近的蠓的身份的新信息，开发用于评估AHSV传入和传播风险的数学模型。AHSV模式将以现有的北京电视传播模式为基础。模型开发将包括对模型参数的敏感性分析，以评估模型预测的不确定性，因为关于马种群的人口统计信息比关于受BTV影响的农场动物种群的信息更少。当模型被参数化为AHSV时，它将被用来估计可能的AHSV爆发的规模和这种病毒在英国持续存在的潜力。该模型还将用于测试不同控制选择（包括疫苗、病媒控制、驱蚊剂、住房、诱饵、马扑杀和行动限制）的相对有效性。

项目成果

Re-parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search.

• DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14420
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Fairbanks, Emma L.;Brennan, Marnie L.;Mertens, Peter P. C.;Tildesley, Michael J.;Daly, Janet M.
• 通讯作者: Daly, Janet M.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210310
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Royal Society open science
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Enright J;Hill EM;Stage HB;Bolton KJ;Nixon EJ;Fairbanks EL;Tang ML;Brooks-Pollock E;Dyson L;Budd CJ;Hoyle RB;Schewe L;Gog JR;Tildesley MJ
• 通讯作者: Tildesley MJ