Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study

优化消除时代被忽视的热带病的被动监测：模型研究

• 批准号: 1964851
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1964851
• 关键词: Optimising; passive; surveillance; neglected; tropical

BackgroundSurveillance is an essential component of programs to eliminate infectious diseases and avert epidemics of (re-)emerging diseases. As the numbers of cases decline, costs of treatment and control diminish but those for surveillance remain high even after the 'last' case. Reducing surveillance may risk missing persistent or (re-)emerging foci of disease. Here, we use a simulation-based approach to determine the minimal number of passive surveillance sites required to ensure maximum coverage of a population at-risk (PAR) of an infectious disease.Methodology and principal findingsFor this study, we use Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) in north-western Uganda, a neglected tropical disease (NTD) which has been reduced to historically low levels (<1000 cases/year globally), as an example. To quantify travel time to diagnostic facilities, a proxy for surveillance coverage, we produced a high spatial-resolution resistance surface and performed cost-distance analyses. We simulated travel time for the PAR with different numbers and locations of diagnostic facilities, quantifying the percentage of the PAR within 1h and 5h travel, as per in-country targets. Our simulations indicate that a 70% reduction (51/170) in diagnostic centres still exceeded minimal targets of coverage even for remote populations, with >95% of a total PAR of ~3million individuals living 1h or less from a diagnostic centre.ConclusionsOur results highlight that surveillance of g-HAT in north-western Uganda can be scaled back without substantially reducing coverage of the PAR. The methodology described can contribute to cost-effective and equitable strategies for the surveillance of NTDs and other infectious diseases approaching elimination or (re-)emergence.

背景监测是消除传染病和避免疾病流行（再）出现的重要组成部分。随着病例数量的减少，治疗和控制的费用减少，但即使在“最后一个”病例之后，监测费用仍然很高。减少监测可能会有遗漏持续或（重新）出现疾病病灶的风险。在这里，我们使用基于模拟的方法来确定所需的被动监测站点的最小数量，以确保最大覆盖率的人口在风险（PAR）的传染病。方法和主要findingsFor这项研究，我们使用冈比亚人非洲锥虫（g-HAT）在乌干达西北部，例如，一种被忽视的热带病（NTD）已降至历史最低水平（全球<1000例/年）。为了量化诊断设施的旅行时间，监测覆盖率的代理，我们制作了一个高空间分辨率的阻力面，并进行了成本-距离分析。我们模拟了不同数量和位置的诊断设施的PAR旅行时间，根据国内目标，量化了1小时和5小时旅行内的PAR百分比。我们的模拟表明，诊断中心的70%的减少（51/170）仍然超过了最低目标的覆盖范围，即使是偏远地区的人口，与>95%的总PAR ~ 300万人生活1小时或更少的诊断centre.ConclusionsOur的结果强调，在乌干达西北部的G-HAT的监测可以缩减，而不会大幅减少PAR的覆盖范围。所描述的方法可以有助于成本效益和公平的战略监测NTD和其他传染病接近消除或（重新）出现。

项目成果

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.

• DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04398-3
• 发表时间: 2020-10-19
• 期刊: Parasites & vectors
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Longbottom J;Caminade C;Gibson HS;Weiss DJ;Torr S;Lord JS
• 通讯作者: Lord JS

Estimating the impact of Tiny Targets in reducing the incidence of Gambian sleeping sickness in the North-west Uganda focus.

• DOI: 10.1186/s13071-021-04889-x
• 发表时间: 2021-08-18
• 期刊: Parasites & vectors
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Bessell PR;Esterhuizen J;Lehane MJ;Longbottom J;Mugenyi A;Selby R;Tirados I;Torr SJ;Waiswa C;Wamboga C;Hope A
• 通讯作者: Hope A

Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008599
• 发表时间: 2021-03
• 期刊: PLoS neglected tropical diseases
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Longbottom J;Wamboga C;Bessell PR;Torr SJ;Stanton MC
• 通讯作者: Stanton MC

Trypa-NO! contributes to the elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis by combining tsetse control with "screen, diagnose and treat" using innovative tools and strategies.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008738
• 发表时间: 2020-11
• 期刊: PLoS neglected tropical diseases
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Ndung'u JM;Boulangé A;Picado A;Mugenyi A;Mortensen A;Hope A;Mollo BG;Bucheton B;Wamboga C;Waiswa C;Kaba D;Matovu E;Courtin F;Garrod G;Gimonneau G;Bingham GV;Hassane HM;Tirados I;Saldanha I;Kabore J;Rayaisse JB;Bart JM;Lingley J;Esterhuizen J;Longbottom J;Pulford J;Kouakou L;Sanogo L;Cunningham L;Camara M;Koffi M;Stanton M;Lehane M;Kagbadouno MS;Camara O;Bessell P;Mallaye P;Solano P;Selby R;Dunkley S;Torr S;Biéler S;Lejon V;Jamonneau V;Yoni W;Katz Z
• 通讯作者: Katz Z

Malaria Data by District: An open-source web application for increasing access to malaria information

按地区划分的疟疾数据：用于增加获取疟疾信息的开源网络应用程序

• DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15495.1
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Wellcome Open Research
• 作者: Tomlinson S