Exploring the spatial epidemiology and network dynamics of onchocerciasis

探索盘尾丝虫病的空间流行病学和网络动态

• 批准号: 1975164
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1975164
• 关键词: Exploring; spatial; epidemiology; network; dynamics

Onchocerciasis, caused by the vector-borne filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus, has been earmarked for elimination by 2020 according to the World Health Organization's roadmap on neglected tropical diseases. Most dynamic modelling studies seeking to understand the determinants and time horizons to elimination have assumed closed, isolated populations of humans, blackfly vectors and parasites. However (rural) endemic communities are likely to be connected by human and fly movement, work-related seasonal travelling patterns, between-borders migration, and in conflict zones internal population displacement. The extent to which this connectedness between transmission zones and areas with varying histories of control interventions will affect continental elimination efforts remains unknown. This project aims to understand how the transmission dynamics of onchocerciasis vary over time and space and in response to underlying network structure. As global targets approach various definitions of onchocerciasis elimination, this project aims to develop novel mechanistic and inferential models to assess intervention effect sizes, forecasting and counterfactual prediction as well as to help inform programmatically viable definitions of elimination and design of post-elimination surveillance strategies.

根据世界卫生组织关于被忽视的热带病的路线图，由媒介传播的丝虫性线虫盘尾丝虫引起的盘尾丝虫病已被指定到2020年消除。大多数旨在了解决定因素和消除时间范围的动态建模研究都假设人类、黑蝇病媒和寄生虫的封闭、孤立的种群。然而，（农村）地方病流行社区可能因人和苍蝇的流动、与工作有关的季节性旅行模式、边界之间的移徙以及冲突地区的国内人口流离失所而相互联系。传播区和具有不同控制干预历史的地区之间的这种联系将在多大程度上影响非洲大陆的消除努力仍然是未知数。本项目旨在了解盘尾丝虫病的传播动力学如何随时间和空间变化，并对潜在的网络结构作出反应。随着全球目标接近消除盘尾丝虫病的各种定义，本项目旨在开发新的机制和推理模型，以评估干预效果大小、预测和反事实预测，并帮助为消除盘尾丝虫病的可行定义和消除后监测战略的设计提供方案信息。

项目成果

Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators.

使用临床试验模拟器设计抗丝虫药物试验。

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16442-y
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Walker M

What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?

• DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/traa193
• 发表时间: 2021-03-06
• 期刊: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Hamley JID;Blok DJ;Walker M;Milton P;Hopkins AD;Hamill LC;Downs P;de Vlas SJ;Stolk WA;Basáñez MG
• 通讯作者: Basáñez MG