Early warning of flash flood and landslide risk in S Asia.

强降雨引发的洪水经常影响东南亚地区数千人。2017年8月，洪水席卷尼泊尔、印度和孟加拉国，造成至少175人死亡，数千人逃离家园。这些毁灭性的洪水往往伴随着破坏性的山体滑坡，增加了生命和生计的损失。欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）正在开发一个山洪预报系统，作为全球洪水预警系统的一部分，该系统使用全球综合数值天气预报来提供强降雨的早期预警。该项目将受益于SHEAR项目联盟的洪水和滑坡专家、ECMWF和英国气象局的气象专家以及印度和尼泊尔的合作伙伴的支持，例如印度的中期预报中心和尼泊尔的实际行动。博士研究生将：-发展和评估山洪暴发指数的长期数据集，例如基于集合再预测的极端预报指数和新的再分析产品（如ECMWF的ERA5）。-利用印度/尼泊尔当局持有的这些长期数据集和流量档案以及遥感数据源（如有）评估山洪预报的潜在技能-确定山洪和山体滑坡的巧合和时间，以及影响选定研究区域可预测性的因素。-开发后处理工具，以改善山洪滑坡风险的沟通，供印度/尼泊尔的项目伙伴采用。该学生将在英国和海外的合作伙伴机构进行一系列实习，包括与ECMWF合作进行山洪预报，与英国地质调查局和英国气象局合作进行山体滑坡预报，以及与印度/尼泊尔的合作伙伴合作进行两次海外实习，包括实际行动和印度中期预报中心。

Flooding from intense rainfall regularly affects several thousands of people across SE Asia. In August 2017 at least 175 people died, and thousands fled their homes as floods swept across Nepal, India and Bangladesh. These devastating floods are often accompanied by destructive landslides which adds to the loss of lives and livelihoods. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is developing a flash flood forecasting system as part of the Global Flood Awareness System, which uses global ensemble numerical weather forecasts to provide early warning of intense rainfall. This project will benefit from support from both flooding and landslide experts from the SHEAR consortium of projects, meteorological experts from ECMWF and the Met Office as well as working alongside partners in India and Nepal, for example the Medium term forecasting centre in India and Practical Action in Nepal. The PhD student will: - Develop and evaluate long term datasets of flash flood indices such as those based on the Extreme Forecast Index from ensemble reforecasts and new reanalysis products such as ERA5 held at ECMWF. - Evaluate the potential skill of the flash flood forecasts using these long term datasets and flow archives held by authorities in India/Nepal and remotely sensed data sources (where available) - Identify coincidence and timings of flash floods and landslides, and the factors influencing predictability in selected study areas. - Develop post-processing tools to improve communication of landslide risk from flash flooding, which can be adopted by project partners in India/Nepal. The student will undertake a series of UK and overseas placements in the partner organisations, including a period working with ECMWF on the flash flood forecasting, with the BGS and Met Office on landsliding, and 2 overseas placement periods with partners in India/Nepal including Practical Action and the Medium Term Forecasting Centre in India.