Early warning of flash flood and landslide risk in S Asia.

南亚山洪和山体滑坡风险预警。

• 批准号: 1985879
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1985879
• 关键词: Early; warning; flash; flood; landslide

Flooding from intense rainfall regularly affects several thousands of people across SE Asia. In August 2017 at least 175 people died, and thousands fled their homes as floods swept across Nepal, India and Bangladesh. These devastating floods are often accompanied by destructive landslides which adds to the loss of lives and livelihoods. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is developing a flash flood forecasting system as part of the Global Flood Awareness System, which uses global ensemble numerical weather forecasts to provide early warning of intense rainfall. This project will benefit from support from both flooding and landslide experts from the SHEAR consortium of projects, meteorological experts from ECMWF and the Met Office as well as working alongside partners in India and Nepal, for example the Medium term forecasting centre in India and Practical Action in Nepal. The PhD student will: - Develop and evaluate long term datasets of flash flood indices such as those based on the Extreme Forecast Index from ensemble reforecasts and new reanalysis products such as ERA5 held at ECMWF. - Evaluate the potential skill of the flash flood forecasts using these long term datasets and flow archives held by authorities in India/Nepal and remotely sensed data sources (where available) - Identify coincidence and timings of flash floods and landslides, and the factors influencing predictability in selected study areas. - Develop post-processing tools to improve communication of landslide risk from flash flooding, which can be adopted by project partners in India/Nepal. The student will undertake a series of UK and overseas placements in the partner organisations, including a period working with ECMWF on the flash flood forecasting, with the BGS and Met Office on landsliding, and 2 overseas placement periods with partners in India/Nepal including Practical Action and the Medium Term Forecasting Centre in India.

强降雨引发的洪水经常影响东南亚数千人。2017年8月，洪水席卷尼泊尔、印度和孟加拉国，造成至少175人死亡，数千人逃离家园。这些毁灭性的洪水往往伴随着破坏性的山体滑坡，增加了生命和生计的损失。欧洲中期天气预报中心正在开发一个暴洪预报系统，作为全球洪水意识系统的一部分，该系统利用全球集合数值天气预报提供强降雨预警。该项目将受益于来自SHINGS项目联盟的洪水和山体滑坡专家，ECMWF和气象局的气象专家以及与印度和尼泊尔合作伙伴的支持，例如印度的中期预报中心和尼泊尔的实际行动。博士生将：- 开发和评估山洪指数的长期数据集，例如基于集合再预报和新再分析产品（如ECMWF举行的ERA 5）的极端预报指数的数据集。- 使用印度/尼泊尔当局持有的这些长期数据集和流量档案以及遥感数据源（如可用）评估山洪预报的潜在技能-确定山洪和山体滑坡的巧合和时间，以及影响选定研究区域可预测性的因素。- 开发后处理工具，以改善山洪暴发造成的滑坡风险的沟通，印度/尼泊尔的项目伙伴可以采用这些工具。学生将在合作伙伴组织中进行一系列的英国和海外实习，包括与ECMWF合作进行山洪预报的一段时间，与BGS和气象局合作进行滑坡，以及与印度/尼泊尔合作伙伴的2个海外实习期，包括印度的实际行动和中期预报中心。