Using Mathematical Models to Explore the Co-infection Dynamics Between Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika and Malaria

使用数学模型探索登革热、基孔肯雅热、寨卡病毒和疟疾之间的共同感染动态

• 批准号: 2097385
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2097385
• 关键词: Using; Mathematical; Models; Explore; Co

Arbovirus infections have a serious impact in the South Americas, Africa and Asia. Zika, dengue and chikungunya all have a high global burden. Severe dengue is potentially deadly, zika can result in neurological complications and congenital malformations whilst chikungunya can cause severe joint pain for weeks occasionally years. Even more concerning is the possibility for co-infection, what impact might this have on patient prognosis? Chikungunya, dengue and zika are carried by the same species of mosquito, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, and there has already been evidence of co-infection in mosquitos as well as in humans. As these diseases become more widespread it is quite possible that co-infection will become much more common. Whilst, it is expected that the impact of co-infection from these arboviruses would be severe, it is curious that research has indicated that co-infection of malaria, a plasmodium, protects again the pathologies of chikungunya. Is it possible that it is protective of the other arboviruses too? Malaria is also carried by the same mosquitos and is also responsible for a high global burden possibly causing death and rather worryingly has high rates of resistance to treatment. It would be very interesting to see the interaction between malaria and the three arboviruses; whether co-infection with malaria might protect the population or exasperate pathologies. This project aims to explore the interplay between co-infection at a population and individualistic level using mathematical models and data from the South Americas. By studying co-infection dynamics across several neighbouring countries, it is hoped that trends in co-infection might be able to be elucidated alongside risk factors. The model will use regional data to explore spatial dynamics within each country which will allow for environmental differences. Later in the project prevention strategies will be explored to try to reduce the risk of these infections and co-infection.

虫媒病毒感染在南美洲、非洲和亚洲产生严重影响。寨卡病毒、登革热和基孔肯雅热都给全球带来了沉重的负担。严重的登革热可能致命，寨卡病毒可能导致神经系统并发症和先天性畸形，而基孔肯雅热可能导致严重的关节疼痛数周，偶尔数年。更令人担忧的是合并感染的可能性，这对患者预后可能产生什么影响？基孔肯雅热、登革热和寨卡病毒是由同一种蚊子埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊携带的，而且已经有证据表明蚊子和人类存在共同感染。随着这些疾病变得更加普遍，合并感染很可能会变得更加普遍。虽然，预计这些虫媒病毒的共同感染的影响将是严重的，但令人好奇的是，研究表明，疟疾（一种疟原虫）的共同感染再次保护了基孔肯雅热的病理。有没有可能它对其他虫媒病毒也有保护作用？疟疾也是由相同的蚊子携带的，也是造成全球高负担的原因，可能导致死亡，而且令人担忧的是，疟疾对治疗的耐药性很高。观察疟疾和三种虫媒病毒之间的相互作用，以及疟疾的共同感染是否会保护人口或加剧疾病，将是非常有趣的。该项目旨在利用来自南美洲的数学模型和数据，探讨人口和个人层面的合并感染之间的相互作用。通过研究几个邻国的合并感染动态，希望能够阐明合并感染的趋势以及风险因素。该模型将利用区域数据探索每个国家的空间动态，这将考虑到环境差异。项目后期将探讨预防战略，以减少这些感染和合并感染的风险。