Future forests and wild woods: modelling the responses of trees to climate, land-use, soils and mycorrhizal symbioses

如果我们要为城市、农村和野生地区设计生态适宜的管理策略，描述和模拟植物对气候变化的大规模反应是必不可少的。该项目将特别侧重于开发数学模型，以探索有助于森林和林地建立和持续存在的因素。关于物种对气候变化的反应的研究几乎总是把重点放在气候本身作为一个预测因素上，然而，还有一些其他的关键因素决定着物种分布和功能的变化。土壤提供了生态和历史环境，使单个植物必须在其中分散、发芽、建立和发展。土壤生物学尤其重要：树木通常与菌根真菌形成专性的象征关系，但也必须与真菌病原体如蜜环菌根病作斗争。在这些生态组成部分之上是人类土地利用，其规模和历史是过去和当代生态系统的重要组成部分。城市化、农业、森林采伐、公园建设和自然过程所产生的干扰都可能对未来的森林和林地产生重大影响。该项目的目的是：收集i)野外多种源关键树种的生存、生长和地上功能性状的定量数据，以及ii)根系和真菌共生体的地下功能性状，使用基于实验室的实验方法，使用这些数据参数化物种对气候变化、土壤和土地利用影响的响应模型，构建基于个体的模型，包括气候、土壤、该项目结合了理论和野外生态学（Pickles）、生态生理学专业知识（Tibbett）和数学模型（sible），探索树木对气候、土壤、土地利用和生物相互作用变化的生长、生存和功能反应。实地、实验室和数学方法将构建森林对未来气候变化和土地利用压力的响应模型，该项目与NERC为QMEE CDT制定的七个目标相结合：使用/开发统计和计算工具。理论的发展，以及理论与模型的整合。不同时空尺度上生态系统的数学建模。数量种群生态学。将更广泛的环境科学数据整合到生态模型中。

Describing and modelling the large-scale responses of plants to climate change is essential if we are to design ecologically appropriate management strategies for urban, rural, and wild areas. This project will focus specifically on the development of mathematical models that explore factors contributing to the establishment and persistence of forests and woodlands. Studies of species responses to climate change almost invariably focus on climate itself as a predictor, yet there are several other key determinants of changes in distribution and function. Soils provide the ecological and historical context into which individual plants must disperse, germinate, establish, and develop. Soil biology is particularly important: trees typically form obligate symbotic associations with mycorrhizal fungi, but must also contend with fungal pathogens like Armillaria root disease. Layered onto these ecological components is human land-use, the scale and history of which is an essential component of past and contemporary ecosystems. The disturbances arising from urbanization, farming, forest harvesting practices, the creation of parks, and natural processes can all have significant impacts on future forests and woodlands. The aims of this project are to:collect quantitative data on i) survival, growth, and aboveground functional traits of multiple provenances of key tree species in the field, and ii) belowground functional traits of roots and fungal symbionts using experimental lab-based approachesuse this data to parameterize species-specific models of responses to climate change, soils, and land-use impactsconstruct individual-based models incorporating information on climate, soils, and soil biota to explore the consequences for future forest regeneration and persistence in a wide range of abiotic and biotic conditionsThis project combines theoretical and field ecology (Pickles), ecophysiological expertise (Tibbett), and mathematical modelling (Sibly), to explore the growth, survival, and functional responses of trees to changes in climate, soil, land-use and biotic interactions. Field, lab, and mathematical approaches will be to construct models of forest responses to future climate change and land-use pressures, and the project engages with five NERC's seven goals for the QMEE CDT: Use/development of statistical and computational tools.Development of theory, and integration of theory into models.Mathematical modelling of ecological systems on diverse temporal and spatial scales.Quantitative population ecology.Integration of data from the wider environmental sciences into ecological models.