Amazon-SOS: a Safe Operating Space for Amazonian Forests

该项目的总体目标是确定和通报人为干扰和气候变化对亚马逊雨林造成重大变化的风险。我们将解决我们这个时代的一个基本问题，即亚马逊雨林在21世纪世纪枯死的可能性，并确定最容易受到影响的地区。我们将联合收割机将这些新知识与主要利益相关者制定的政策和方案相结合，共同设计亚马逊河流域的安全操作空间。为了解决亚马逊枯梢病的标志性问题，我们将推进对森林如何生长，衰退和恢复的新生态理解，这些森林在21世纪全球变暖的背景下受到极端气候，森林火灾和森林砍伐及其相互作用的干扰。我们将使用新的森林地块网络、无人机和卫星来构建新的数据集，以制作气候对森林风险的近实时地图，并跟踪整个流域的个体大树死亡率。这些信息将一起用于数学模型，以帮助估计未来森林枯死的风险。我们将与用于预测土地利用（森林转换，退化）对森林功能的影响的模型一起工作，以及这些森林为人类提供的生态系统服务。这些成果将使我们能够向决策者提供有关未来土地利用选择的新信息，帮助他们建立最佳的土地利用途径，最大限度地减少亚马逊地区大规模森林损失或功能障碍可能带来的风险。亚马逊森林在世界气候中发挥着至关重要的作用。此外，每年通过植被生长吸收5-10%的人类相关二氧化碳排放量，该地区成为气候变化的主要制动器。极端气候（如干旱）、森林火灾和砍伐森林逆转了这一过程，导致向大气的净排放。如果这种情况以足够大的规模发生，通过增加森林损失或增加气候变化速度--或它们的相互作用--对全球二氧化碳和气候变化产生的积极影响，将使本已具有挑战性的巴黎气候目标几乎不可能实现。简而言之，气候变化、森林火灾和森林砍伐已被确定为对亚马逊河流域日益加剧和相互作用的主要威胁。亚马逊森林的大量丧失，也被称为“亚马逊枯死”，将对人类福祉、生物多样性、生物地球化学循环以及区域和全球气候产生巨大的负面影响。然而，全球气候变化的程度加上人类干扰，可能引发大规模的枯死是未知的。预计气候变化将在该地区变得更加激烈，同时人为砍伐森林和森林退化（例如火灾，伐木）也将增加。由于缺乏数据，而且目前的模型不能很好地代表关键过程，因此对它们的影响了解甚少。我们聚集了英国和美国科学家在生态学，生态生理学，地球观测（使用卫星）和植被生长，土地利用和气候的数学建模应用于亚马逊地区的领域。我们处于独特的地位，可以在理解气候压力和人类干扰对亚马逊的综合影响方面做出改变。我们的测量将建立关于完整和受干扰森林的新知识，它们的稳定性和驱动其压力反应的生理学。这些知识的进步将使我们能够建立森林-气候-土地利用相互作用的新模型，我们将利用这些模型为决策者提供信息。我们将与从国家到国际层面的利益相关者合作，共同制定土地使用情景，以最大限度地降低未来气候和森林生态系统服务的风险。总体而言，我们提出了亚马逊森林经验和建模研究的多个大型综合进展，并将建立一个在地方，区域和全球产生重大影响的科学政策对话。

The overall aim of this project is to determine and communicate the risk of significant change to the Amazon rainforest caused by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. We will address a fundamental issue of our time, on the likelihood of Amazon rainforest dieback in the 21st century and identify regions that are most susceptible. We will combine this new knowledge with policies and scenarios developed by key stakeholders to co-design a Safe-Operating-Space for Amazonia. To address the iconic issue of Amazon dieback we will advance new ecological understanding of how forests grow, decline and recover following disturbance from climate extremes, forest fire and deforestation and their interaction in the context of 21st Century global warming. We will build novel datasets using a new forest plot network, drones and satellites to produce near-real-time maps of the risk to forests from climate, and track individual large-tree mortality across the basin. Together this information will be used in mathematical models to help estimate the risk of future forest dieback. We will join this work with models used to predict the effects of land use (forest conversion, degradation) on forest function, and the ecosystem services these forests provide to humanity. The outputs will enable us to deliver new information to policy makers regarding future options for land use, helping them to build optimal land use pathways that minimise the risks that may arise out of large-scale forest loss or dysfunction in Amazonia.The Amazon forest plays a vital role in the world's climate. In addition, by annually absorbing 5-10% of human-related CO2 emissions via vegetation growth, the region acts as a large brake on climate change. Climate extremes (eg drought), forest fires and deforestation reverse this process, causing net emissions to the atmosphere. If this were to happen on a large enough scale, via increased forest loss or increased rates of climate change - or their interaction - the resulting positive effect on global CO2 and climate change, would make the already-challenging Paris climate targets virtually impossible. In short, climate change, forest fires and deforestation have been identified as major intensifying and interacting threats to Amazonia. A substantive loss of Amazonian forest, also known as "Amazon dieback", would have huge negative consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling, and regional and global climate. However, the level of global climate change combined with human disturbance that could trigger large-scale dieback is not known. Climate change is predicted to become more intense in the region alongside increases in human-driven deforestation and forest degradation (e.g fires, logging). Their impacts are poorly understood because of a lack of data, and because models cannot currently represent the key processes well enough. We have gathered leading UK and S American scientists in the fields of ecology, ecophysiology, Earth observation (using satellites) and the mathematical modelling of vegetation growth, land-use and climate as applied to Amazonia. We are uniquely positioned to make a step-change in understanding the combined effects of climate stress and human disturbance on Amazonia. Our measurements will build new knowledge about intact and disturbed forests, their stability and the physiology driving their stress responses. These knowledge advances will enable new modelling of forest-climate-land-use interactions which we will use to inform policymakers. We will engage with stakeholders from state to international levels to co-develop land-use scenarios that minimise risk in future climate and forest ecosystem services. Overall, we propose multiple large and integrated advances in empirical and modelling studies of the forests of Amazonia, and will build a science-policy dialogue that delivers significant impact locally, regionally and globally.