STATISTICAL METHODS FOR CASE CONTROL SURVIVAL DATA

申请人描述这个为期两年的项目的目的是开发和测试新的统计方法，用于分析流行病例对照生存数据。流行病例对照生存研究可能是研究疾病发病时间和评估危险因素与疾病发生概率之间的关联的有效方法。在许多情况下，流行病例对照生存研究比发病病例对照或前瞻性队列研究更有效。不幸的是，目前还没有统计方法可用于有效分析流行病例对照生存研究的数据。这个项目的具体目标是：1)将在单样本问题(分析中不包括协变量)下开发的流行病例对照研究的数据分析方法扩展到两样本问题的背景下，即开发估计和比较两个不同风险组的生存分布的方法；2)使用在Aim(1)中开发的方法来分析来自腺瘤性息肉(腺瘤)患者的流行病例对照样本的生存数据；3)开发回归方法来分析流行病例对照生存数据；4)开发用户友好的软件，用于分析流行病例对照研究的生存数据。新方法的发展是基于将病例对照似然嵌入预期似然中的通常病例对照数据分析方法的扩展，以及右截短生存数据的分析方法。这项建议的方法学和流行病学意义在于，它提供了适当和有效的方法来分析来自流行病例对照生存数据的数据。

APPLICANT'S DESCRIPTION The aim of this two year project is to develop and test new statistical methods for the analysis of prevalence case-control survival data. Prevalence case-control survival studies may be a powerful approach to study time to onset of disease, and to evaluate the association between risk factors and probability of developing the disease. In many cases, prevalence case-control survival studies are more efficient than incidence case-control or prospective cohort studies. Unfortunately, no statistical methods are currently available for an efficient analysis of data from prevalence case-control survival studies. The specific aims of this project are: 1) To extend methods for the analysis of data from prevalence case-control studies developed in the setting of the one-sample problem (no covariates included in the analysis) to the setting of the two-sample problem, i.e., to develop methods for estimating and comparing survival distributions for two different risk groups; 2) To use the methods developed in Aim (1) to analyze survival data from a prevalence case-control sample of patients with adenomatous polyps (adenomas); 3) To develop regression methods for the analysis of prevalence case-control survival data; 4) To develop user-friendly software for the analysis of survival data from prevalence case-control studies. Development of the new methods is based on an extension of the usual approach to the analysis of case-control data of embedding the case-control likelihood into a prospective likelihood, and on methods of analysis of right truncated survival data. The methodological as well as epidemiological relevance of this proposal is that it provides appropriate and efficient methods of analysis of data from prevalence case-control survival data.