The role of mathematical modelling for knowledge production in infectious disease outbreak responses

数学建模在传染病暴发应对中的知识生产作用：对其应用程度以及模型生产者和消费者之间的相互作用进行评估关于如何最好地应对全球卫生问题的决定越来越多地受到数学建模和经济分析结果的影响。这些方法很复杂，往往被政策制定者视为“黑箱”，他们需要在做出政策决定时，根据其他类型的证据和数据，以及更广泛的卫生系统约束和政治经济现实，考虑建模的结果。评估模型制作者如何表达他们的发现，他们的分析的局限性，以及政策制定者如何理解这些是重要的。在这里，我们与疫苗影响建模联盟（VIMC）合作评估这一点。VIMC成立于2016年，汇集了来自世界各地的20多个流行病学建模小组，重点关注疫苗影响建模。该联盟是根据全球疫苗免疫联盟、疫苗联盟和比尔及梅林达·盖茨基金会确定的需求而建立的。该项目旨在与VIMC、各国政府、捐助者和其他利益攸关方密切合作，评估全球疫苗模型的产出如何在国家一级转化。

The role of mathematical modelling for knowledge production in infectious disease outbreak responses: An evaluation of the extent of its application and the interaction between model producers and consumersDecisions about how to best respond to global health issues are increasingly being informed by results from mathematical modelling and economic analysis. The methods are complex and often viewed as a 'black box' by policy-makers who need to consider the findings from modelling against other types of evidence and data, as well as wider health system contraints and political and economic realities when making policy decisions. Evaluating how well producers of models articulate their findings, the limitations of their analyses, and how policy-makers understand these is important. Here we assess this in collaboration with the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC). Established in 2016, the VIMC bring together over 20 epidemiological modelling groups from all over the world, all with a focus on vaccine impact modelling. The Consortium was established in response to an identified need by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This project aims to work in close collaboration with VIMC, governments, donors and other stakeholders to assess how the global vaccine model outputs are translated at the national level.