Welfare Reform and Migration

描述(申请人提供)：1996年福利改革立法中福利政策的下放是否创造了新的国家福利和规则不平等，从而导致福利贫困家庭在国家之间和国家内部的迁移？福利驱动的移民与非移民家庭相比，福利贫困家庭的搬家后幸福感是否增加？ 这项研究使用了四个来源的合并数据--1996年和2001年的收入和计划参与调查(SIPP)小组，城市研究所的福利规则数据库，以及根据十年一次的人口普查和当前人口调查数据创建的当地劳动力市场特征文件--纵向、分两个阶段说明福利对贫困家庭移民行为的影响。基于国家福利政策不平等框架，我们使用因子分析从1996年后的文本政策手册中制定衡量标准，以实施15个福利福利和资格规则维度，并检验假设的国家计划对移民的影响。 我们使用离散时间事件历史分析来预测SIPP数据中的迁移事件(州间迁移和州内迁移)。我们的多层次分层建模策略是对福利贫困家庭的三个移民决定因素假设进行的综合的、以前未经检验的微观宏观分析。这些测试评估了1)时变的国家福利政策特征；2)个人和家庭特征，包括五个生活史维度-移民、福利、工作、婚姻状况和生育、教育技能升级和信息丰富的SIP文件中的网络联系；以及3)当地劳动力市场层面的经济机会结构指标。 遵循Frey等人的观点。(1996)，我们通过一个确定拉动效应的“目的地模型”和一个根据国家政策标准确定潜在移民来源地推送效应的“离开模型”，分别分析了我们假设的协变量的推送和拉动迁移效应。这个包含国家福利政策、当地劳动力市场以及个人和家庭指标的两阶段模型将提供一个强有力的检验，为关于福利政策对移民的影响的“福利变化对受试者的显着性”命题(Shram和Voss 1999)提供新的证据。最后，我们利用考虑移民选择特征的时序相加和交互OLS回归模型，将搬家后的家庭收入、福利福利和福利参与需求作为福利贫困移民与非移民的幸福结果进行建模。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Has devolution of welfare policy in the1996 welfare reform legislation created new state benefits and rules inequalities that engender inter-and intra-state migration of welfare poor families? Does welfare-driven migration result in increased after-move well being compared with before the move for welfare poor families versus non-migrant families? This study uses merged data from four sources -- the 1996 and 2001 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, and a local labor market characteristics file created from decennial census and Current Population Survey data -- in a longitudinal, two-stage specification of welfare benefit "push" and "pull,' impacts on poor families' migration behavior. Based upon a state welfare policy inequality framework, we use factor analysis to develop measures from post-1996 textual policy manuals to operationalize 15 welfare benefit and eligibility rule dimensions and to test hypothesized state program effects on migration. We use discrete-time event history analysis to predict migration events (inter-state and intra-state migration) in the SIPP data. Our multi-level hierarchical modeling strategy is an integrated, and previously untested, micro-macro analysis of three determinant-of-migration hypotheses for welfare poor families. These tests evaluate effects of 1) time varying state welfare policy characteristics; 2) individual and family characteristics, including five life history dimensions-migration, welfare, work, marital status and childbearing, an educational skills upgrade and network ties from the information-rich SIP files; and 3) local labor market-level economic opportunity structure indicators. Following Frey et al. (1996), we separately analyze push and pull migration effects of our hypothesized co-variants through, first, a "destination model" for identifying pull effects, and then, a "departure model" which identifies push effects for potential migrants' origin locations grouped by class of states according to state policy criteria. This two-stage model with state welfare policy, local labor market, and individual and household indicators will provide a strong test, giving new evidence on the "salience of benefit variation to subjects" thesis (Shram and Voss 1999) regarding the welfare policy impact on migration. Finally, we model post-move family income, welfare benefits, and welfare participation requirements as well-being outcomes of welfare poor migrants versus non-migrants using time-ordered additive and interactive OLS regression models with consideration of migration-selection characteristics.