Welfare Reform and Migration

福利改革与移民

• 批准号: 6697239
• 负责人: GORDON F DEJONG
• 金额: $ 22.39万
• 依托单位: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-02-01 至 2006-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6697239
• 关键词: Welfare; Reform; Migration

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Has devolution of welfare policy in the1996 welfare reform legislation created new state benefits and rules inequalities that engender inter-and intra-state migration of welfare poor families? Does welfare-driven migration result in increased after-move well being compared with before the move for welfare poor families versus non-migrant families? This study uses merged data from four sources -- the 1996 and 2001 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, and a local labor market characteristics file created from decennial census and Current Population Survey data -- in a longitudinal, two-stage specification of welfare benefit "push" and "pull,' impacts on poor families' migration behavior. Based upon a state welfare policy inequality framework, we use factor analysis to develop measures from post-1996 textual policy manuals to operationalize 15 welfare benefit and eligibility rule dimensions and to test hypothesized state program effects on migration. We use discrete-time event history analysis to predict migration events (inter-state and intra-state migration) in the SIPP data. Our multi-level hierarchical modeling strategy is an integrated, and previously untested, micro-macro analysis of three determinant-of-migration hypotheses for welfare poor families. These tests evaluate effects of 1) time varying state welfare policy characteristics; 2) individual and family characteristics, including five life history dimensions-migration, welfare, work, marital status and childbearing, an educational skills upgrade and network ties from the information-rich SIP files; and 3) local labor market-level economic opportunity structure indicators. Following Frey et al. (1996), we separately analyze push and pull migration effects of our hypothesized co-variants through, first, a "destination model" for identifying pull effects, and then, a "departure model" which identifies push effects for potential migrants' origin locations grouped by class of states according to state policy criteria. This two-stage model with state welfare policy, local labor market, and individual and household indicators will provide a strong test, giving new evidence on the "salience of benefit variation to subjects" thesis (Shram and Voss 1999) regarding the welfare policy impact on migration. Finally, we model post-move family income, welfare benefits, and welfare participation requirements as well-being outcomes of welfare poor migrants versus non-migrants using time-ordered additive and interactive OLS regression models with consideration of migration-selection characteristics.

描述（由申请人提供）：1996年福利改革立法中的福利政策下放是否创造了新的国家福利和规则不平等，从而导致福利贫困家庭的州际和州内移民？福利驱动的移民是否会导致福利贫困家庭与非移民家庭相比，搬迁后的幸福感增加？ 这项研究使用了来自四个来源的合并数据-1996年和2001年的收入和计划参与调查（SIPP）小组，城市研究所的福利规则数据库，以及从十年一次的人口普查和当前人口调查数据创建的当地劳动力市场特征文件-在纵向，两阶段的福利福利“推”和“拉”的规范，对贫困家庭迁移行为的影响。基于国家福利政策的不平等框架，我们使用因素分析，开发措施，从1996年后的文本政策手册，操作15个福利待遇和资格规则的尺寸，并测试假设的国家计划对移民的影响。 我们使用离散时间事件历史分析来预测迁移事件（州际和州内迁移）的SIPP数据。我们的多层次的分层建模策略是一个综合的，以前未经测试，微观宏观分析的三个决定因素的移民假设福利贫困家庭。这些测试评估的影响1）随时间变化的国家福利政策的特点; 2）个人和家庭的特点，包括五个生活史维度的迁移，福利，工作，婚姻状况和生育，教育技能的升级和网络关系，从信息丰富的SIP文件;和3）当地劳动力市场层面的经济机会结构指标。 根据Frey等人（1996），我们分别分析了我们假设的协变量的推和拉迁移效应，首先，一个“目的地模型”用于识别拉效应，然后，一个“离开模型”，根据国家政策标准，按国家分类确定潜在移民的原籍地的推效应。这两个阶段的模型与国家福利政策，当地劳动力市场，个人和家庭的指标将提供一个强有力的测试，提供新的证据的“显着的利益变化的主题”的论点（Shram和Voss 1999年）有关的福利政策对移民的影响。最后，我们模型搬迁后的家庭收入，福利待遇，福利参与要求福利贫困移民与非移民的福祉结果，使用时间顺序的添加剂和交互式OLS回归模型，考虑到迁移选择的特点。