Methods and policy pathways to optimize production of mixed stocks of biological resources

优化生物资源混合库存生产的方法和政策路径

• 批准号: 2243988
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Queen Mary University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2243988
• 关键词: Methods; policy; pathways; optimize; production

Global environmental issues related to food security, biodiversity, and use of antibiotic, pesticide andfertilizers suggest use of smart mixtures of crops/stocks in agriculture, forestry, and farming: so called polycultures. A barrier to this is, however, the complexity of polycultures compared to monocultures.This complexity lies not only in physically tending and harvesting mixed cultures, but also in identifying and maintaining the optimal mix. Indeed, ecological theory (Rossberg 2013, ISBN 9-780470973- 55-4) predicts that sensitivity of the composition of such mixtures to external pressures, e.g. fertilization, climate, pests, increases steadily with the number of species, both in the wild and in managed systems. Hence there is a need for methods (1) to set attainable management objectives for polycultures in light of inherent tradeoffs, (2) to identify corresponding optimal mixtures, (3) to understand the predictability of outcomes and of the management intensity required to attain optima in view of inherent uncertainties. A third, political, aspect of complexity arises when stakeholders with different roles participate in management and use. One then needs to (4) understand agreeability of objectives, e.g. in terms of inherent incentives to collaborate.These are generic problem areas, located within the remit of BBSRC Strategic Priority 1 (agriculture and food security) addressing the highlighted research need to "increase the efficiency and sustainability of crop and animal production", while "minimising negative environmental impacts" and "preserving biodiversity and other ecosystem services". Interdependencies between these problem areas advises to study them for a specific system, so not to miss important practical constraints. A good model system is the intensely managed mixed fishery of the North Sea. It is well described by ecological models, and the benefits of managing it as a polyculture (rather than as a set of independent "wild" stocks) are acknowledged amongst stakeholders.Aim of this project is to develop a prototype management plan addressing the four problem areas enumerated above.Workplan:Year 1: Address (1) and (2) above. Using the existing North Sea Ecosim model developed by Cefas, find optimal polycultures corresponding to the objectivities proposed, e.g., by Farcas & Rossberg (2016, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsw113). These include the current approach, which disregards biological interactions; maximization of total biomass yield; and game-theoretical approaches.Year 2: Address (3). Quantify the impact of model uncertainty on management outcomes and the resulting need for adaptation of plans to achieve objectives. Year 3: Address (4). Interact with the stakeholder community (fishers, scientists, policy makers, NGOs) and document attitudes and responses to the evaluated policy options. Based on this, propose a long-term management plan to stakeholders.This interdisciplinary research pulls together thinking from complex systems theory, control theory, economic theory, biology, and political science. It will test hypotheses previously developed by Farcas and Rossberg (2016). Scientific publications will address audiences beyond those interested in fisheries because, as explained, the underlying principles are of much wider relevance.For the non-academic partner Cefas, policy advice on fisheries management is core business and, in view of Brexit, demand for UK competency in fisheries management has increased.

与粮食安全、生物多样性以及抗生素、杀虫剂和化肥的使用有关的全球环境问题建议在农业、林业和耕作中使用作物/库存的智能混合物：所谓的多元文化。然而，与单一栽培相比，多元栽培的复杂性是一个障碍，这种复杂性不仅在于实际上照料和收获混合培养物，而且还在于确定和保持最佳组合。事实上，生态学理论（Rossberg 2013，ISBN 9-780470973- 55-4）预测，这种混合物的组成对外部压力（例如施肥、气候、害虫）的敏感性随着野生和管理系统中物种数量的增加而稳步增加。因此，有必要的方法（1）设置可实现的管理目标的多元文化的内在权衡，（2）确定相应的最佳混合，（3）了解的可预测性的结果和管理强度所需的内在不确定性，以达到最佳。第三，政治方面的复杂性出现在不同角色的利益相关者参与管理和使用时。然后，需要（4）理解目标的一致性，例如，在合作的内在激励方面。这些是一般问题领域，位于BBSRC战略优先事项1的职权范围内（农业和粮食安全）解决突出的研究需要，以“提高作物和动物生产的效率和可持续性”，同时“尽量减少负面环境影响”和“保护生物多样性和其他生态系统服务”。这些问题领域之间的相互依赖性建议针对特定系统进行研究，因此不要错过重要的实际约束。一个很好的模式是北海密集管理的混合渔业。生态模型对它有很好的描述，利益攸关方也承认将其作为一种混养（而不是一套独立的“野生”种群）进行管理的好处。使用Cefas开发的现有北海生态模拟模型，找到与提出的客观性对应的最佳多元文化，例如，Farcas & Rossberg（2016，doi：10.1093/icesjms/fsw113）.这些方法包括目前的方法，它忽略了生物相互作用;最大限度地提高总生物量产量;和博弈理论的方法。量化模型不确定性对管理结果的影响，以及由此产生的调整计划以实现目标的必要性。第三年：地址（4）。与利益攸关方社区（渔民、科学家、决策者、非政府组织）互动，记录对评价的政策选择的态度和反应。在此基础上，向利益相关者提出长期经营计划。这一跨学科的研究汇集了复杂系统理论、控制理论、经济理论、生物学和政治学的思想。它将测试Farcas和Rossberg（2016）以前开发的假设。科学出版物将解决那些对渔业感兴趣的受众之外的问题，因为正如所解释的那样，基本原则具有更广泛的相关性。对于非学术合作伙伴Cefas，渔业管理政策建议是核心业务，鉴于英国退欧，对英国渔业管理能力的需求有所增加。