Interaction of Atmospheric Deep Convection with the Tropical Circulation

这是一个跨学科的数学和理论项目，将探讨深层对流风暴和热带大气环流之间的关系。众所周知，这些风暴控制着热带地区的能量平衡，但它们与环流的耦合是全球预测中最不确定的因素之一，对恶劣天气和气候变化具有重要意义。由于这些不确定性，对热带大陆降雨的数值预测存在很大偏差，在印度和非洲等人口众多、易受气候波动影响的地区。该项目旨在通过使用一个简单的建模框架，即所谓的“Rainy-Benard”模型，发展对深层对流风暴行为的理论理解。这个简单的模型将用于开发和测试一些理论原理。例如，考虑能量、质量和湿度的收支将用于将大尺度条件与对流风暴活动的某些措施联系起来。例如，我们可以问“如果我们改变气候强迫，在我们的简单模型中，风暴的强度、频率和间隔将如何变化？”由此获得的理论知识将应用于更复杂的天气和气候模型，并对其进行检验。该项目将利用新一代数值模拟产品，以高分辨率大气模拟的形式与可操作的天气预报模型相结合。这些模式模拟将用于测试和开发数学模型，以说明在几公里尺度上的云中的潜热如何控制数千公里尺度上的热带波和喷流的动力学。该项目将受益于英国气象局的正式联合监督，以及对其他正在进行的研究项目的贡献，包括GCRF非洲SWIFT项目。

This is an interdisciplinary mathematical and theoretical project which will explore the relationship between deep convective storms and the circulation of the tropical atmosphere. These storms are known to dominate the energy balance of the tropics, but their coupling with the circulation represents one of the foremost uncertainties in global prediction, with significance for severe weather and for climate change. As a result of these uncertainties, numerical predictions of rainfall over the tropical continents have substantial biases, in regions such as India and Africa, where large populations are vulnerable to fluctuations in the climate. The project aims to develop theoretical understanding of the behaviour of deep convective storms, through the use of a simple modelling framework, the so-called "Rainy-Benard" model. The simple model will be used to develop and test some theoretical principles. For example, consideration of the budgets of energy, mass and moisture will be used to relate the large-scale conditions to some measures of the convective storm activity. For instance, we can ask "if we change the climatic forcing, how will the intensity, frequency and spacing of storms change, in our simple model?". The theoretical learning which is gained, will then be applied and tested on much more complicated weather and climate models.The project will exploit the new generation of numerical modelling products, in the form of very high-resolution atmospheric simulations with an operational weather prediction model. These model simulations will be used to test and develop mathematical models for the ways in which latent heating in clouds, on scales of a few kilometres, controls the dynamics of tropical waves and jets, on scales of many thousand kilometres. The project will benefit from formal co-supervision from the Met Office as well as contributions to other ongoing research projects, including the GCRF African SWIFT project.