Interaction of Atmospheric Deep Convection with the Tropical Circulation

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This is an interdisciplinary mathematical and theoretical project which will explore the relationship between deep convective storms and the circulation of the tropical atmosphere. These storms are known to dominate the energy balance of the tropics, but their coupling with the circulation represents one of the foremost uncertainties in global prediction, with significance for severe weather and for climate change. As a result of these uncertainties, numerical predictions of rainfall over the tropical continents have substantial biases, in regions such as India and Africa, where large populations are vulnerable to fluctuations in the climate. The project aims to develop theoretical understanding of the behaviour of deep convective storms, through the use of a simple modelling framework, the so-called "Rainy-Benard" model. The simple model will be used to develop and test some theoretical principles. For example, consideration of the budgets of energy, mass and moisture will be used to relate the large-scale conditions to some measures of the convective storm activity. For instance, we can ask "if we change the climatic forcing, how will the intensity, frequency and spacing of storms change, in our simple model?". The theoretical learning which is gained, will then be applied and tested on much more complicated weather and climate models.The project will exploit the new generation of numerical modelling products, in the form of very high-resolution atmospheric simulations with an operational weather prediction model. These model simulations will be used to test and develop mathematical models for the ways in which latent heating in clouds, on scales of a few kilometres, controls the dynamics of tropical waves and jets, on scales of many thousand kilometres. The project will benefit from formal co-supervision from the Met Office as well as contributions to other ongoing research projects, including the GCRF African SWIFT project.