Macroeconomic models play a crucial role in policymaking

宏观经济模型在政策制定中起着至关重要的作用。他们将宏观经济理论与数据相结合，以估计经济变化对整个系统的影响。尽管模型可以非常有洞察力，但它们的强大程度取决于它们的基本假设。可计算一般均衡(CGE)是一类广泛使用的宏观经济模型，它非常灵活，能够适应关于代理人行为的不同假设。宏观经济模型的最新发展是利用行为经济学的见解来解释经济模型中的异常现象。具体地说，与储蓄和投资行为相关的时间不一致性理论，以及与劳动力市场和消费行为相关的参考依赖理论，都非常有影响力。这些对CGE模拟的结果是至关重要的。不幸的是，CGE模型仍然依赖于新古典主义假设。该项目将寻求重新考虑下文提出的一些关键假设，并将调整斯特拉斯克莱德大学的CGE模型AMOS，以改进现有的经济工具集，以评估和应对宏观经济冲击，并制定最佳政策。这一模型特别相关，因为它由苏格兰政府(SG)使用，并与HMRC、北爱尔兰政府(NIG)和欧盟委员会使用的模型具有关键特征。这一博士学位的第一个贡献将是纳入偏向于当下的观点。“基于当下的偏好体现了这样一种观点，即在考虑对未来有影响的决定时，当下尤其突出，对手头的决定有很大影响。”这些偏好捕捉到了行为是时间不一致的(决策者制定未来计划，但随着时间的推移，这些变化)，而当前的建模方法假设时间一致的偏好。第二个贡献将是在消费决策中采用参考依赖关系。这指的是这样一个事实：“结果是根据偏离参照点的情况定义的价值函数来评估的”。这将允许根据价格和收入的变化对代理人行为进行不同的定义。第三个贡献将是将参考依赖纳入劳动力市场。与消费决定类似，个人的就业决定和工作动机取决于他们的工资是高于还是低于参考点。中心目标是将为更好地捕捉人们实际行为而开发的众所周知的行为理论纳入CGE建模方法，以提高这些模型的准确性，并测试结果对不同假设的敏感性。此外，它还将向使用CGE模型的各国政府提供指导。如果这个项目大大提高了CGE模拟结果的准确性，那么政策制定者将拥有一个改进的政策制定工具集。这将产生积极的社会影响。这些影响不会局限于苏格兰的CGE模式，但也可以在其他地方使用，因为改变CGE模式的灵活性和相对容易。该项目还将使行为经济学家受益，因为它将为他们的理论和经济建模人员提供可量化的预测和模拟，因为CGE假设的变化可以转移到其他类别的模型。

Macroeconomic models play a crucial role in policymaking. They combine macroeconomic theories with data to estimate the system-wide impact of changes in the economy. Although models can be very insightful, they are only as strong as their underlying assumptions. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) are one class of widely used macroeconomic models which are extremely flexible and able to accommodate different assumptions about agents' behaviours. Recent developments in macroeconomic modelling have used insights from behavioural economics to explain anomalies in economic models. Specifically, the theories of time inconsistency relevant in saving and investment behaviours and reference dependence relevant to labour market and consumption behaviour have been very impactful. These are crucial to the results of CGE simulations. Unfortunately, CGE models still rely on neoclassical assumptions. This project will seek to rethink some crucial assumptions presented below and will adapt the University of Strathclyde's CGE model AMOS to improve the economic toolset available to evaluate and respond to macroeconomic shocks and to tailor optimal policies. This model is particularly relevant as it is used by the Scottish government (SG) and shares key characteristics with models used by the HMRC, Northern Irish government (NIG) and the EU Commission. The first contribution to this PhD will be to incorporate ideas of present-biased preferences. 'Present-biased preferences capture the idea that when considering decisions that have consequences in the future, the present is particularly salient and has a large impact on the decision at hand'. These preferences capture that behaviour is time inconsistent (decision makers make future plans but over time these change), whereas current modelling approaches assume time consistent preferences. The second contribution will be the adoption of reference dependence in consumption decisions. This refers to the fact that 'outcomes are evaluated using a value function defined over departures from a reference point'. This will allow agent behaviour to be defined differently depending on price and income changes. The third contribution will be the incorporation of reference dependence in labour markets. Similar to consumption decisions, individuals' employment decisions and motivation to work rely on whether their wage lies above or below a reference point. The central aim is to incorporate well-known behavioural ideas developed to better capture how people actually behave into CGE modelling approaches, to improve the accuracy of these models and to test the sensitivity of results to different assumptions. In addition, it will offer guidance to governments using CGE models. If the accuracy of the results of CGE simulations are greatly improved by this project, then policymakers will have an improved toolset for their policy making. This would have positive societal implications. These implications would not be limited to CGE models in Scotland but could also be used elsewhere given the flexibility and relative ease in changing CGE models. This project would also benefit behavioural economists as it would provide quantifiable forecasts and simulations to their theories and economic modelers as the changes in CGE assumptions made could be transferable to other classes of models.