Macroeconomic models play a crucial role in policymaking

宏观经济模型在政策制定中发挥着至关重要的作用

• 批准号: 2277374
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2277374
• 关键词: Macroeconomic; models; play; crucial; role

Macroeconomic models play a crucial role in policymaking. They combine macroeconomic theories with data to estimate the system-wide impact of changes in the economy. Although models can be very insightful, they are only as strong as their underlying assumptions. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) are one class of widely used macroeconomic models which are extremely flexible and able to accommodate different assumptions about agents' behaviours. Recent developments in macroeconomic modelling have used insights from behavioural economics to explain anomalies in economic models. Specifically, the theories of time inconsistency relevant in saving and investment behaviours and reference dependence relevant to labour market and consumption behaviour have been very impactful. These are crucial to the results of CGE simulations. Unfortunately, CGE models still rely on neoclassical assumptions. This project will seek to rethink some crucial assumptions presented below and will adapt the University of Strathclyde's CGE model AMOS to improve the economic toolset available to evaluate and respond to macroeconomic shocks and to tailor optimal policies. This model is particularly relevant as it is used by the Scottish government (SG) and shares key characteristics with models used by the HMRC, Northern Irish government (NIG) and the EU Commission. The first contribution to this PhD will be to incorporate ideas of present-biased preferences. 'Present-biased preferences capture the idea that when considering decisions that have consequences in the future, the present is particularly salient and has a large impact on the decision at hand'. These preferences capture that behaviour is time inconsistent (decision makers make future plans but over time these change), whereas current modelling approaches assume time consistent preferences. The second contribution will be the adoption of reference dependence in consumption decisions. This refers to the fact that 'outcomes are evaluated using a value function defined over departures from a reference point'. This will allow agent behaviour to be defined differently depending on price and income changes. The third contribution will be the incorporation of reference dependence in labour markets. Similar to consumption decisions, individuals' employment decisions and motivation to work rely on whether their wage lies above or below a reference point. The central aim is to incorporate well-known behavioural ideas developed to better capture how people actually behave into CGE modelling approaches, to improve the accuracy of these models and to test the sensitivity of results to different assumptions. In addition, it will offer guidance to governments using CGE models. If the accuracy of the results of CGE simulations are greatly improved by this project, then policymakers will have an improved toolset for their policy making. This would have positive societal implications. These implications would not be limited to CGE models in Scotland but could also be used elsewhere given the flexibility and relative ease in changing CGE models. This project would also benefit behavioural economists as it would provide quantifiable forecasts and simulations to their theories and economic modelers as the changes in CGE assumptions made could be transferable to other classes of models.

宏观经济模型在决策中发挥着至关重要的作用。他们将联合收割机宏观经济理论与数据相结合，以估计经济变化对整个系统的影响。虽然模型可以非常有洞察力，但它们的强大程度取决于其基本假设。可计算一般均衡（CGE）是一类被广泛使用的宏观经济模型，它非常灵活，能够适应对主体行为的不同假设。宏观经济模型的最新发展使用了行为经济学的见解来解释经济模型中的异常现象。具体而言，与储蓄和投资行为相关的时间不一致性理论以及与劳动力市场和消费行为相关的参考依赖理论非常有影响力。这些对CGE模拟的结果至关重要。不幸的是，CGE模型仍然依赖于新古典假设。该项目将寻求重新思考下文所述的一些关键假设，并将调整斯特拉斯克莱德大学的可计算一般均衡模型AMOS，以改进现有的经济工具集，用于评估和应对宏观经济冲击，并制定最佳政策。这一模式特别相关，因为它被苏格兰政府（SG）使用，并与HMRC、北方爱尔兰政府（NIG）和欧盟委员会使用的模式具有关键特征。对这个博士学位的第一个贡献将是纳入当前偏向偏好的思想。“现在偏向偏好捕捉的想法是，当考虑对未来有影响的决定时，现在特别突出，对手头的决定有很大的影响。这些偏好捕获的行为是时间不一致的（决策者制定未来的计划，但随着时间的推移，这些变化），而目前的建模方法假设时间一致的偏好。第二个贡献将是在消费决策中采用参考依赖。这指的是这样一个事实，即“结果是使用偏离参考点定义的价值函数来评估的”。这将使代理人的行为可以根据价格和收入的变化而有不同的定义。第三个贡献是将参照依赖纳入劳动力市场。与消费决定类似，个人的就业决定和工作动机取决于他们的工资是高于还是低于参考点。中心目标是将众所周知的行为思想，以更好地捕捉人们的实际行为纳入CGE建模方法，以提高这些模型的准确性，并测试结果对不同假设的敏感性。此外，它还将为各国政府使用专家咨询小组模型提供指导。如果CGE模拟结果的准确性通过该项目得到极大提高，那么政策制定者将拥有一套改进的政策制定工具。这将产生积极的社会影响。这些影响将不仅限于苏格兰的CGE模型，而且也可以用于其他地方，因为改变CGE模型具有灵活性和相对容易。这个项目也将有利于行为经济学家，因为它将为他们的理论和经济建模者提供量化的预测和模拟，因为CGE假设的变化可以转移到其他类别的模型。