Predicting Cohabiting Unions' Outcomes and Stability

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的目的是探讨同居关系的结果和稳定性与人生历程经历和态度的关系。两个相关的问题将被调查：1)同居联盟是在经历人生历程事件（如生育、就业、教育、居住流动等事件）的同时形成的，与同居过渡到婚姻或破裂的可能性有关吗？如果结婚了，与婚姻保持完整的可能性有关吗？2)同居关系形成之前所持的态度是否预示着这段关系是否会过渡到婚姻或破裂，如果结婚的话，是否预示着婚姻关系的稳定性。主要假设有：1)同居关系破裂、保持完整或过渡到婚姻的可能性，以及随后的婚姻是否保持完整，将取决于该关系是否在同一时间形成，经历了其他生命历程事件，事件的类型和事件的数量，以及婚姻状况和种族/民族；(2)具有较传统价值取向和宗教信仰的同居伴侣较不传统的同居伴侣更容易过渡到婚姻，其后续婚姻也更稳定。多项逻辑回归和事件历史方法将应用于全国家庭和住户调查的第1、2和3波，以模拟工会过渡。这项研究将促进我们对同居如何适应美国家庭制度的理解。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The objective of this research project is to explore how the outcomes and stability of cohabiting unions are related to life course experiences and attitudes. Two related questions will be investigated: 1) are cohabiting unions formed at the same time as the experience of a life course event (looking at events such as fertility, employment, education, residential mobility) related to the likelihood the cohabitation transitions into marriage or breaks up and, if a marriage occurs, to the likelihood that the marriage remains intact; and 2) are attitudes held prior to the formation of a cohabitation predictive of whether the union will transition into marriage or break up and, if a marriage occurs, of the stability of the marital union. The main hypotheses are 1) the likelihood of a cohabiting union breaking up, staying intact, or transitioning into marriage and whether the subsequent marriage remains intact will vary by whether the union was formed at the same time other life course events were experienced, what kind of events, and the number of events as well as vary by marital status and race/ethnicity; and 2) the cohabiting unions of individuals with more traditional value orientations and who are more religious are more likely to transition into marriage, and their subsequent marriages are more likely to be stable compared to less traditional persons. Multinomial logistic regression and event history methods will be applied to Waves 1, 2, and 3 of the National Survey of Families and Households to model union transitions. This research will advance our understanding of how cohabitation fits into the American family system.