Consistency of Retrospectively Reported Individual Fertility Data Across Time

项目摘要 人们对男性和女性生育子女的条件进行了广泛的研究，有两个截然不同的研究主体： (1)预测谁有出生以及这些出生的特征，以及(2)分析出生特征 影响以后的结果。这两个领域都高度依赖调查数据，个人回顾 报道他们的出生情况。出生特征的范围从主观受孕因素(如关系 状态或是否有意怀孕)与怀孕期间的行为(如吸烟或产前 更客观的数据(如胎龄或出生体重)。这些特征随后被用作 因变量或自变量，分别识别不同变量的预测因子和结果 出生特征。然而，研究人员很少考虑这些回溯报道的数据-- 通过要求个人回忆过去事件的状态、感觉、行为和细节而产生的数据-是 可靠。如果输入的数据有缺陷，那么使用这些数据进行研究可能会得出不准确的结论。有限的 直接调查回溯报告的生育率调查数据的研究确实发现了问题--一些 男性的出生根本没有报告，相当少数的年轻女性改变了她们的出生方式 当被问及同一出生在不同的时间点时，回溯性地描述出生的意图 时间到了。这表明，对其他出生特征的回顾报告也可能倾向于 随着时间的推移不一致。因此，当前的项目调查了一个重要但未经检验的假设： 母亲和父亲在报告过去的生育率方面是一致的。该项目通过以下方式测试这一假设 仅有的两个纵向数据集(全国青少年至成人健康纵向研究和 托莱多青少年关系研究)收集了多个波的完整生育史，这意味着 个人有多个机会报告同一出生的特征(S)。拟议的研究 将实现两个目标。首先，它将确定受访者是否一致地报告自己的出生情况， 调查了广泛的生育措施。这将a)确定哪些特征最有可能是 报告一致，b)利用调查的差异来确定调查的频率和结构 影响一致性，以及c)确定世卫组织报告的一致性是否存在系统性差异。 其次，这个项目将回答一个更根本的问题：不一致是否会影响得出的结论 一方面，出生特征与潜在的先兆和结局之间的关系， 在另一个方面？在使用出生特征作为因变量或自变量的平行分析中- 以及从不同的波浪中提取这些特征-模型将被比较以识别 先兆/结局与出生特征之间的关联是否对不一致敏感 报告。这正好符合NICHD人口动态处生育和不孕处的任务。 该项目对生育研究和公共卫生项目具有实际和实质性的影响。

Project Abstract The conditions in which men and women have children are widely studied, with two distinct bodies of research: (1) predicting who has births and the characteristics of those births, and (2) analyzing how birth characteristics influence later outcomes. Both areas are highly dependent on survey data, with individuals retrospectively reporting about their births. Birth characteristics range from subjective conception factors (such as relationship status or whether the pregnancy was intended) to behaviors during pregnancy (such as smoking or prenatal care) to more objective data (such as gestational age or birth weight). These characteristics are then used as either dependent or independent variables to identify the predictors and consequences, respectively, of various birth characteristics. Rarely, though, have researchers considered whether this retrospectively-reported data – data produced by asking individuals to recall statuses, feelings, behaviors, and details of past events – is reliable. If input data is flawed, then research using such data risks drawing inaccurate conclusions. The limited research directly investigating retrospectively-reported fertility survey data has indeed found problems – some men’s births are not reported at all, and a substantial minority of young women change how they retrospectively characterize the intendedness of a birth when asked about the same birth at different points in time. This suggests that retrospective reports for other birth characteristics may also be prone to inconsistencies over time. The current project thus investigates an important but untested assumption: that mothers and fathers are consistent in how they report about past fertility. The project tests this assumption with the only two longitudinal datasets (the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study) that collect full fertility histories at multiple waves, which means that individuals have multiple opportunities to report characteristics for the same birth(s). The proposed research will accomplish two goals. First, it will establish whether respondents report consistently about their births, investigating a wide range of birth measures. This will a) identify which characteristics are most likely to be reported consistently, b) leverage differences in surveying to determine how survey frequency and structure influence consistency, and c) establish whether there is systematic variation in who reports consistently. Second, this project will answer a more fundamental question: does inconsistency affect the conclusions drawn about the relationship between birth characteristics, on the one hand, and potential precursors and outcomes, on the other? In parallel analyses using birth characteristics as either the dependent or independent variable – and varying the waves from which these characteristics are drawn – models will be compared to identify whether the associations between precursors/outcomes and birth characteristics are sensitive to inconsistent reports. This fits squarely within the mission of the NICHD Population Dynamics Branch Fertility and Infertility Program and has both practical and substantive implications for fertility research and public health programs.