"WORKSHOPS IN FORMAL AND QUANTITATIVE DEMOGRAPHY"

描述(由申请人提供)：这是一份修订提案，建议在两年内每年为研究生和博士后学生设计和举办两次研讨会，涵盖正式的人口学和相关分析方法。这里的正式人口学首先指的是基于更新方程的人口分析，这种分析植根于阿尔弗雷德·洛特卡和现代人口学家如安斯利·科尔、内森·凯菲茨和塞缪尔·普雷斯顿的工作。其次，正式人口学指的是描述转型中的人口、随机动态、集体动态和人口-经济模型的较新工作。最后，正式人口学包括在具体的实质性背景下发展这些方法，包括生育率、死亡率、残疾、移徙、网络和一系列其他主题--植根于社会、人口和经济进程的正式模式的发展。这些模型不一定是分析性的：它们包括以计算机程序形式表达的模型。我们建议的计划包括每年两次研讨会。首先，为期14天的夏季讲习班，涵盖正式的人口统计学、建模方法和技术以及相关的计算方法。第二，围绕专业主题(第一年的预测，第二年的生物人口模型)组织了一个为期三天的高级建模和分析小型研讨会。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This is a revised proposal to design and conduct two workshops in each of two years, for graduate and postdoctoral students, covering formal demography and related analytical methods. Formal demography here refers in the first place to demographic analysis based on the renewal equation, rooted in the work of Alfred Lotka and demographers of the modem age such as Ansley Coale, Nathan Keyfitz, and Samuel Preston. Secondly, formal demography refers to more recent work describing populations in transition, stochastic dynamics, collective dynamics, and demographic-economic models. Finally, formal demography includes the development of these methods in specific substantive contexts including fertility, mortality, disability, migration, networks, and a range of other topics - development that is rooted in formal models of social, demographic, and economic processes. These models are not necessarily analytical: they include models that are formulated as computer programs. The program we propose consists of two workshops each year. First, a Summer Workshop of 14 days covering formal demography, modeling methods and techniques, and related computational methods. Second, a three-day Mini-workshop in advanced modeling and analysis organized around specialized topics (forecasting in year 1, biodemographic models in year 2).