"WORKSHOPS IN FORMAL AND QUANTITATIVE DEMOGRAPHY"

“正式和定量人口学研讨会”

• 批准号: 6936435
• 负责人: SHRIPAD D. TULJAPURKAR
• 金额: $ 14.47万
• 依托单位: STANFORD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-08-15 至 2007-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6936435
• 关键词: analytical method; educational resource design /development; fertility; human migration; human morbidity; human mortality; human population study; mathematical model; postgraduate education; science education; sociology /anthropology; workshop

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This is a revised proposal to design and conduct two workshops in each of two years, for graduate and postdoctoral students, covering formal demography and related analytical methods. Formal demography here refers in the first place to demographic analysis based on the renewal equation, rooted in the work of Alfred Lotka and demographers of the modem age such as Ansley Coale, Nathan Keyfitz, and Samuel Preston. Secondly, formal demography refers to more recent work describing populations in transition, stochastic dynamics, collective dynamics, and demographic-economic models. Finally, formal demography includes the development of these methods in specific substantive contexts including fertility, mortality, disability, migration, networks, and a range of other topics - development that is rooted in formal models of social, demographic, and economic processes. These models are not necessarily analytical: they include models that are formulated as computer programs. The program we propose consists of two workshops each year. First, a Summer Workshop of 14 days covering formal demography, modeling methods and techniques, and related computational methods. Second, a three-day Mini-workshop in advanced modeling and analysis organized around specialized topics (forecasting in year 1, biodemographic models in year 2).

描述（由申请人提供）：这是一项修订后的提案，旨在每两年为研究生和博士后学生设计和举办两次研讨会，涵盖正式人口统计学和相关分析方法。这里的正式人口统计学首先指的是基于更新方程的人口分析，该方程植根于阿尔弗雷德·洛特卡（Alfred Lotka）以及安斯利·科尔（Ansley Coale）、内森·凯菲茨（Nathan Keyfitz）和塞缪尔·普雷斯顿（Samuel Preston）等现代人口统计学家的工作。 其次，正式人口学是指描述转型人口、随机动态、集体动态和人口经济模型的最新研究。最后，正式人口学包括在具体的实质性背景下开发这些方法，包括生育率、死亡率、残疾、移民、网络和一系列其他主题——植根于社会、人口和经济过程的正式模型的发展。这些模型不一定是分析性的：它们包括制定为计算机程序的模型。我们提出的计划每年包括两次研讨会。首先，为期 14 天的夏季研讨会涵盖正式人口统计学、建模方法和技术以及相关计算方法。其次，围绕专门主题（第一年预测，第二年生物人口统计模型）组织了为期三天的高级建模和分析小型研讨会。