SOFTWARE FOR STOCHASTIC DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS

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DESCRIPTION: The objective of the proposed work is to produce and market interactive software for the production and interpretation of probabilistic, age-and-sex structure, demographic forecasts. This software will be based on recent, NIH-funded, research into stochastic forecasts of mortality, fertility and population. The software will focus on the use and interpretation of probabilistically consistent forecasts of measures such as weighted ratios of population age-segments, which are key to analyzing the economics and health of the elderly. an important objective of the software is to educate users about the meaning of uncertainty, and its importance as an aid to decision-making and projection. The software to be developed will have versions that are to be aimed at two broadly distinct markets. One is education and research, with users spanning the range from advanced undergraduates to graduate students and researchers. The other is commercial, with users in industries such as planning demand for educational, health or other services.