CREDIBILITY OF PREDICTIONS OF REACTOR CORE CONDITION

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Typically, about 20% of the UK's electricity is supplied from nuclear power-stations [http://gridwatch.co.uk/] which are operated by EDF. These power-stations are approaching the end of their planned life so that a number of them are usually shutdown for inspection and maintenance [https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses]. A key factor in their future operation is the condition of the graphite in the reactor which moderates the neutrons and also forms the structure of the core. During inspection periods, the inner surface of the graphite core is examined and measured to support models of the degradation of the graphite during the operation of the reactor [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlaUky_v55I]. The inaccessibility of most of the core means that measurement data is limited to a few locations whereas predictions about the condition of the entire core are required to support decisions about the safe operation of the reactor. A credibility matrix and associated credibility factors have been developed for use in evaluating untestable models in aerospace engineering and computational biology; and, it is proposed to extend and modify these tools to establish trust amongst decision-makers in predictions of the condition of the graphite core in nuclear reactors. The project will consider strategies to maximise the use and collection of measurements from graphite cores, as well as to improve protocols for communicating information about the quality of a model including its uncertainty. The project will be conducted in a research group involved in similar work in aerospace engineering and biotechnology; and industrial supervision will be provided by EDF.