CREDIBILITY OF PREDICTIONS OF REACTOR CORE CONDITION

通常情况下，英国约20%的电力来自由法国电力运营的核电站[http://gridwatch.co.uk/]]。这些发电站的计划寿命即将结束，因此它们中的一些通常会关闭以进行检查和维护[https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses].他们未来运行的一个关键因素是反应堆中石墨的状况，它缓和了中子，也形成了堆芯的结构。在检查期间，对石墨芯的内表面进行检查和测量，以支持反应堆[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlaUky_v55I].运行期间的石墨降解模型大多数堆芯的不可访问性意味着测量数据仅限于少数几个位置，而需要对整个堆芯状况进行预测，以支持有关反应堆安全运行的决策。已开发了用于评估航空航天工程和计算生物学中不可测模型的可信度矩阵和相关可信度因子；并建议扩展和修改这些工具，以在决策者之间建立对核反应堆中石墨堆芯状况预测的信任。该项目将考虑最大限度地利用和收集来自石墨芯的测量结果的战略，以及改进关于模型质量信息(包括其不确定性)的通信协议。该项目将在一个参与航空航天工程和生物技术类似工作的研究小组中进行；工业监督将由EDF提供。

Typically, about 20% of the UK's electricity is supplied from nuclear power-stations [http://gridwatch.co.uk/] which are operated by EDF. These power-stations are approaching the end of their planned life so that a number of them are usually shutdown for inspection and maintenance [https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses]. A key factor in their future operation is the condition of the graphite in the reactor which moderates the neutrons and also forms the structure of the core. During inspection periods, the inner surface of the graphite core is examined and measured to support models of the degradation of the graphite during the operation of the reactor [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlaUky_v55I]. The inaccessibility of most of the core means that measurement data is limited to a few locations whereas predictions about the condition of the entire core are required to support decisions about the safe operation of the reactor. A credibility matrix and associated credibility factors have been developed for use in evaluating untestable models in aerospace engineering and computational biology; and, it is proposed to extend and modify these tools to establish trust amongst decision-makers in predictions of the condition of the graphite core in nuclear reactors. The project will consider strategies to maximise the use and collection of measurements from graphite cores, as well as to improve protocols for communicating information about the quality of a model including its uncertainty. The project will be conducted in a research group involved in similar work in aerospace engineering and biotechnology; and industrial supervision will be provided by EDF.