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Predicting demand for UK HE within the global HE market

预测全球高等教育市场对英国高等教育的需求

基本信息

批准号：
2441415
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Liverpool
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2441415
关键词：
Predicting demand UK HE within

项目摘要

International student mobility plays a vital role in the UK's higher education system. As the second most popular destination for international students, nearly ten per cent of all international students choose to study in the UK. Despite significant changes in the higher education sector, there remains a lack of empirical research on the drivers of student applications, their response to external shocks and policy changes, and the future of international student mobility in the UK. Through my PhD thesis, I aim to provide a comprehensive analysis of the past, present, and future of international student applications. My first paper focuses on the heterogeneity of factors that impacted international student applications from 2009-2019. To achieve this, I model key push and pull factors in a multi-level negative binomial framework and analyse the unique combinations of factors that influence flows from each country of origin. In my second paper, I investigate the impact of external shocks and policy changes in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Using difference-in-differences and a multi-level regression framework, I empirically measure the impact of Brexit and COVID-19 on international students. Finally, I aim to produce forecasts for international student applications by comparing common forecasting methods and exploring the potential of introducing machine learning techniques. These forecasts will help us understand how demographic, political, and economic shocks and developments may affect international student applications in the future. Overall, my research provides a holistic view of international student applications in UK higher education and their potential trajectory in the years to come.

国际学生流动在英国高等教育体系中发挥着至关重要的作用。作为第二大最受国际学生欢迎的目的地，近10%的国际学生选择在英国学习。尽管高等教育领域发生了重大变化，但仍然缺乏对学生申请的驱动因素、他们对外部冲击和政策变化的反应以及英国国际学生流动性的未来的实证研究。通过我的博士论文，我的目标是提供一个国际学生申请的过去，现在和未来的全面分析。我的第一篇论文关注的是2009-2019年影响国际学生申请的因素的异质性。为了实现这一目标，我在一个多层次的负二项框架中模拟关键的推拉因素，并分析影响每个原籍国流量的因素的独特组合。在我的第二篇论文中，我调查了2020年，2021年和2022年外部冲击和政策变化的影响。使用差异中的差异和多水平回归框架，我实证衡量了英国脱欧和COVID-19对国际学生的影响。最后，我的目标是通过比较常见的预测方法和探索引入机器学习技术的潜力，为国际学生的申请提供预测。这些预测将帮助我们了解人口，政治和经济冲击和发展如何影响未来的国际学生申请。总的来说，我的研究提供了一个全面的观点，国际学生在英国高等教育的应用程序和他们的潜在轨迹在未来几年。