Predicting demand for UK HE within the global HE market

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International student mobility plays a vital role in the UK's higher education system. As the second most popular destination for international students, nearly ten per cent of all international students choose to study in the UK. Despite significant changes in the higher education sector, there remains a lack of empirical research on the drivers of student applications, their response to external shocks and policy changes, and the future of international student mobility in the UK. Through my PhD thesis, I aim to provide a comprehensive analysis of the past, present, and future of international student applications. My first paper focuses on the heterogeneity of factors that impacted international student applications from 2009-2019. To achieve this, I model key push and pull factors in a multi-level negative binomial framework and analyse the unique combinations of factors that influence flows from each country of origin. In my second paper, I investigate the impact of external shocks and policy changes in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Using difference-in-differences and a multi-level regression framework, I empirically measure the impact of Brexit and COVID-19 on international students. Finally, I aim to produce forecasts for international student applications by comparing common forecasting methods and exploring the potential of introducing machine learning techniques. These forecasts will help us understand how demographic, political, and economic shocks and developments may affect international student applications in the future. Overall, my research provides a holistic view of international student applications in UK higher education and their potential trajectory in the years to come.