Integrating climate and species modelling to predict movements of migratory and nomadic birds in sub-Saharan Africa

在世界半干旱地区，包括撒哈拉以南非洲，游牧和候鸟物种是常见和广泛的。然而，尽管有协调一致的研究努力，在充分了解和预测这些物种如何在年内和年间移动，以及它们如何可能对气候变化作出反应方面几乎没有取得进展。能够做到这一点对红嘴虫尤其重要，红嘴虫是一种大量迁徙的粮食作物害虫。大规模、高度多变的作物移栖害虫，如奎利亚虫，是对全球粮食安全的重大威胁。撒哈拉以南非洲尤其如此，那里有超过1.2亿人的生计受到这类害虫的影响。考虑到越来越多的野生土地被人类占用，以及气候变化的影响，这种情况可能会变得更糟。迁徙物种本身就具有管理和预测的挑战性，尤其是因为它们的迁徙和种群规模往往是由离繁殖地一定距离的事件决定的。尽管正在进行研究工作，但在预测（并因此能够减轻）这种损害可能发生的地点和时间方面几乎没有取得进展。博士学位的总体目标将是促进我们对迁徙和半游牧物种如何应对年份之间的气候变化以及几年之内的天气模式的理解。您将通过开发比目前可用的更精细的时间和空间模型来做到这一点，这将代表一个重要的广泛适用的方法进步。你将与一组具有广泛技能和兴趣的主管一起工作，包括(i)模拟气候过程和天气如何影响作物的位置和生产；（ii）撒哈拉以南非洲气候变化下鸟类的分布、（所有类型）作物病虫害以及（iii）病虫害对农民决策和生计的社会经济影响。博士将专注于气候变化如何改变作物生产和高度破坏性害虫物种的分布。然而，根据您的兴趣和能力，您可以探索红嘴鸟-谷物-作物相互作用的不同方面，例如迁移连通性假设对具有经济重要性的超丰富农业害虫物种的适用性。鉴于该物种的社会和经济重要性，还可以重点关注作物损害以及相关的财务和生计影响，包括建立在何处以及如何进行虫害防治的模型，以便以最低的成本将产量损失降到最低。

Nomadic and migratory bird species are common and widespread in semi-arid regions of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa. However, despite concerted research efforts, little progress has been made in fully understanding and predicting how such species move within and between years, and how they are likely to respond to the changing climate. Being able to do so is particularly important for the red-billed quelea Quelea quelea, a hyper-abundant migratory grain crop pest. Massive, highly variable, outbreaks of migratory crop pests, such as the quelea, are a major threat to food security globally. This is particularly true for the in sub-Saharan Africa, where over 120 million people have their livelihoods affected by such pests.Given the increased appropriation of wild lands for human use, and impacts of climate change, this is likely to get worse. Migratory species themselves are challenging to manage and predict, not least because their movements and population sizes are often determined by events at some distance from their breeding grounds. Despite ongoing research effort, little progress has been made in predicting (and therefore being able to mitigate for) where and when such damage could occur. The overall aim of the PhD will be to advance our understanding of how migratory and semi-nomadic species respond to climate change between years, and weather patterns within years. You will do this through developing temporal and spatial models that operate at finer scales than are currently available, which will represent a significant broadly applicable methodological advance. You will be working with a team of supervisors who have a broad range of skills and interests, including (i) modelling how climate processes and weather affect the location and production of crops; (ii) the distribution of birds under climate change, crop pests (of all types) in sub-Saharan Africa and (iii) the socio-economic impacts of pests on farmer decision making and livelihoods. The PhD will focus on how climate change might alter crop production and the distribution of a highly damaging pest species. However, there is scope, according to your interests and abilities, to explore different facets of the red-billed quelea-grain-crop interaction, such as the applicability of the migratory connectivity hypothesis for a hyper-abundant agricultural pest species of economic importance. Given the social and economic importance of the species, there would also be scope to focus on crop damage, and associated financial and livelihood impacts, including modelling where and how pest control could be undertaken so that yield losses are minimised for least cost.