Integrating climate and species modelling to predict movements of migratory and nomadic birds in sub-Saharan Africa

整合气候和物种模型来预测撒哈拉以南非洲的候鸟和游牧鸟类的迁徙

• 批准号: 2442884
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2442884
• 关键词: Integrating; climate; species; modelling; predict

Nomadic and migratory bird species are common and widespread in semi-arid regions of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa. However, despite concerted research efforts, little progress has been made in fully understanding and predicting how such species move within and between years, and how they are likely to respond to the changing climate. Being able to do so is particularly important for the red-billed quelea Quelea quelea, a hyper-abundant migratory grain crop pest. Massive, highly variable, outbreaks of migratory crop pests, such as the quelea, are a major threat to food security globally. This is particularly true for the in sub-Saharan Africa, where over 120 million people have their livelihoods affected by such pests.Given the increased appropriation of wild lands for human use, and impacts of climate change, this is likely to get worse. Migratory species themselves are challenging to manage and predict, not least because their movements and population sizes are often determined by events at some distance from their breeding grounds. Despite ongoing research effort, little progress has been made in predicting (and therefore being able to mitigate for) where and when such damage could occur. The overall aim of the PhD will be to advance our understanding of how migratory and semi-nomadic species respond to climate change between years, and weather patterns within years. You will do this through developing temporal and spatial models that operate at finer scales than are currently available, which will represent a significant broadly applicable methodological advance. You will be working with a team of supervisors who have a broad range of skills and interests, including (i) modelling how climate processes and weather affect the location and production of crops; (ii) the distribution of birds under climate change, crop pests (of all types) in sub-Saharan Africa and (iii) the socio-economic impacts of pests on farmer decision making and livelihoods. The PhD will focus on how climate change might alter crop production and the distribution of a highly damaging pest species. However, there is scope, according to your interests and abilities, to explore different facets of the red-billed quelea-grain-crop interaction, such as the applicability of the migratory connectivity hypothesis for a hyper-abundant agricultural pest species of economic importance. Given the social and economic importance of the species, there would also be scope to focus on crop damage, and associated financial and livelihood impacts, including modelling where and how pest control could be undertaken so that yield losses are minimised for least cost.

游牧和候鸟物种在包括撒哈拉以南非洲在内的世界半干旱地区很常见，分布广泛。然而，尽管作出了协调一致的研究努力，但在充分了解和预测这些物种如何在年内和年间移动以及它们可能如何应对气候变化方面进展甚微。能够做到这一点对于红嘴奎利亚来说尤其重要，奎利亚是一种非常丰富的迁徙性谷物害虫。大规模、高度可变的迁徙性作物害虫，如奎利亚雀的爆发，是对全球粮食安全的主要威胁。在撒哈拉以南非洲，情况尤其如此，那里有超过1.2亿人的生计受到这种害虫的影响，由于人类占用更多的荒地，加上气候变化的影响，情况可能会变得更糟。迁徙物种本身的管理和预测具有挑战性，尤其是因为它们的迁徙和种群规模往往取决于距离繁殖地一定距离的事件。尽管正在进行研究工作，但在预测（因此能够减轻）何时何地可能发生这种损害方面进展甚微。博士学位的总体目标是促进我们对迁徙和半游牧物种如何应对年间气候变化以及年内天气模式的理解。您将通过开发时间和空间模型来实现这一目标，这些模型在比目前可用的更精细的尺度上运行，这将代表一个重要的广泛适用的方法学进步。您将与一个拥有广泛技能和兴趣的主管团队合作，包括（i）模拟气候过程和天气如何影响作物的位置和生产;（ii）气候变化下鸟类的分布，作物害虫（所有类型）在撒哈拉以南非洲和（iii）害虫对农民决策和生计的社会经济影响。博士将专注于气候变化如何改变作物产量和高度破坏性的害虫物种的分布。然而，根据你的兴趣和能力，有机会探索红嘴奎利亚-谷物-作物相互作用的不同方面，例如迁徙连接假说对一种具有经济重要性的超丰富农业害虫物种的适用性。考虑到该物种的社会和经济重要性，还可以关注作物损害以及相关的财务和生计影响，包括建模在何处以及如何进行虫害控制，以便以最低成本将产量损失降至最低。