OCE-PRF: Investigating coral demographic processes to understand how local conditions interact with climate change to influence coral recovery trajectories

珊瑚礁是最濒危的生态系统之一，受到全球气候变化以及过度捕捞和污染等当地压力因素的威胁。全球气候变化威胁着珊瑚礁，因为温暖的海水事件（被称为“海洋热浪”）会引发珊瑚白化和大规模死亡。珊瑚礁的当地条件，如污染或与珊瑚竞争的藻类过度生长，会加剧珊瑚在白化事件后的死亡。然而，我们不了解珊瑚礁的这些局部条件是否也会影响珊瑚在白化事件后的长期恢复。这项研究解决了这一知识差距，并提供了有效的管理行动，以减少气候变化对珊瑚礁的局部压力的影响。与全球气候变化不同，珊瑚礁的局部压力因素可以由个别社区和国家来管理。这项工作的大部分集中在夏威夷的珊瑚礁上，并为夏威夷的社区提供直接的社会效益。此外，该项目支持一名早期职业研究人员，并为来自STEM中代表性不足群体的学生提供定量工具和计算机编程技能的研究机会和培训。这些都是跨学科创新研究和STEM职业的基本技能。在白化事件发生后，当地条件对珊瑚恢复的影响程度存在争议，部分原因是我们对珊瑚的人口统计过程如何推动或缺乏恢复的理解不足。这项工作使用了几个现有的数据集和多层建模方法来研究珊瑚人口统计过程，以了解当地条件如何与气候变化相互作用，从而影响珊瑚的恢复轨迹。这项工作使用太平洋四个地区珊瑚大小频率数据的时间序列来评估区域白化事件后珊瑚的人口统计率（殖民地生长和招募），并评估这些人口统计过程在推动恢复动态中的相对重要性。来自夏威夷珊瑚礁的数据被用来建立一系列结构方程模型，以评估当地压力源（捕捞压力和营养物污染）对珊瑚人口统计率的影响及其与珊瑚礁恢复轨迹的关系。此外，首席研究员计划使用这些模型作为基础，预测减少当地压力因素可能或可能不会提高夏威夷珊瑚的恢复速度。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Coral reefs are among the most imperiled ecosystems, threatened by global climate change and local stressors such as overfishing and pollution. Global climate change threatens coral reefs because warm water events (known as ‘marine heatwaves’) trigger coral bleaching and mass mortality. Local conditions on coral reefs, such as pollution or algal overgrowth that compete with corals, can intensify coral mortality following bleaching events. However, we do not understand whether these local conditions on coral reefs also influence long-term coral recovery after bleaching events. This research addresses this knowledge gap and provides results to inform efficient management actions to lessen the impacts of local stressors on reefs in the face of climate change. Unlike global climate change, local stressors to coral reefs can be managed by individual communities and countries. Much of this work focuses on reefs in Hawaii and provides direct societal benefits to communities in Hawaii. In addition, this project supports an early-career researcher and provides research opportunities and training in quantitative tools and computer programming skills for students from underrepresented groups in STEM. These are fundamental skills for innovative research across scientific disciplines and STEM careers. The degree to which local conditions influence coral recovery after bleaching events is debated, partly because we have a poor understanding of how demographic processes in corals drive recovery or lack thereof. This work uses several existing datasets and a multi-tiered modeling approach to study coral demographic processes to understand how local conditions interact with climate change to influence coral recovery trajectories. This work uses a time series of coral size-frequency data across four regions in the Pacific to assess coral demographic rates (colony growth and recruitment) following regional bleaching events and evaluate the relative importance of those demographic processes in driving recovery dynamics. Data from Hawaiian reefs are used to build a series of structural equation models to evaluate the impact of local stressors (fishing pressure and nutrient pollution) on coral demographic rates and their relationship to reef recovery trajectories. Additionally, the principal investigator plans to use those models as a foundation to forecast how reducing local stressors may or may not enhance coral recovery rates in Hawaii.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.