Influence of environmental change on water quality and the risks of toxic algal blooms in Africa

湖泊和湿地是支持生物多样性和为人类提供重要生态系统服务的关键生态系统。然而，它们受到人为压力的威胁，包括气候变化和流域退化。富营养化和地表水变暖增加了有害藻华的风险，这可能改变水生环境并抑制其他生物。一些形成藻华的蓝藻细菌会产生毒素，这些毒素与动物的死亡有关，也可能对人类有害。然而，对于环境变化在多大程度上影响死亡事件的风险，特别是在非洲，仍然知之甚少。该项目将利用卫星地球观测、实地观测和模拟气候数据来调查远程连接、气候变化和集水区退化对南部和东部非洲内陆水域水质的影响。一系列机器学习方法和卫星传感器将用于评估、监测和预测水体的生态水文动态，并生成用于从太空检测藻华的新算法。最后，该项目将研究不断变化的环境和气候条件如何影响有毒藻华的风险，并导致陆地巨型动物和鱼类的大规模死亡，以及这些风险如何随时间和空间变化。

Lakes and wetlands are critical ecosystems that support biodiversity and provide vital ecosystem services to people. However, they are threatened by anthropogenic pressures, including climate change and catchment degradation. Eutrophication and the warming of surface waters increase the risk of harmful algal blooms, which can alter aquatic environments and suppress other organisms. Some bloom-forming species of cyanobacteria produce toxins (cyanotoxins) that have been associated with the deaths of animals and can be harmful to people. However, little is still known about the extent to which environmental change is influencing the risk of mortality events, especially in Africa. This project will utilise satellite earth observations, field observations and modelled climate data to investigate the influence of teleconnections, climate change and catchment degradation on the water quality of inland waters in Southern and Eastern Africa. A range of machine learning methods and satellite sensors will be used to assess, monitor, and predict the ecohydrological dynamics of waterbodies and to generate novel algorithms for the detection of algal blooms from space. Finally, the project will examine how changing environmental and climatic conditions may influence the risk of toxic algal blooms and lead to mass die-offs of terrestrial megafauna and fish and how these risks vary over space and time.