A Cohort-Sequential Panel Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-45

描述（由申请人提供）：我们提出了一系列的队列-顺序小组研究，使用具有全国代表性的高中毕业生样本，从高中毕业到45岁，研究物质使用和相关因素在整个生命历程和历史时期的变化。这项研究将检查社会和环境因素和过程，包括可能解释变化的生命历程转变。目标样本随机抽取来自未来监测（MTF）调查的高中毕业班参与者（每个队列2400名受访者）。高成本效益的邮寄调查将每两年进行一次，高中毕业后1至12年（至30岁），此后每五年进行一次（至45岁）。研究目标包括：(1)监测普通人群中重要人群的物质使用情况，特别是美国大学生；(2)区分发生的三种不同类型的变化——时期、年龄和群体；(3)研究与这些不同类型变化相关的原因、后果和发展模式。每种类型都有不同的决定因素组和不同的作用时间，并且发现所有三种类型都发生在大多数药物中。还将监测可能解释历史趋势和群体差异的因素。其他目标包括记录药物使用的自然历史和成年中期的相关态度，确定社会角色和社会环境的哪些转变有助于药物使用和相关态度，并确定这些角色和环境的哪些特征影响最大。该研究将检验其他假设的心理、行为和吸毒的社会决定因素的重要性（包括对毒品的态度和信念、同伴规范、反广告和角色塑造），以及吸毒的一系列潜在后果（包括身体健康、心理健康、地位获得和角色表现）。研究人员将继续促进其他人将MTF数据用于各种研究目的。研究结果将对理解和预防从青春期到成年中期的药物使用和滥用具有重要意义。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): A series of cohort-sequential panel studies is proposed to examine changes in substance use and related factors across the life course and across historical period, using large nationally representative samples of high school graduates, from the end of high school through age 45. The study will examine social and environmental factors and processes, including life-course transitions that may explain change. The target samples are drawn randomly from graduating classes of high school senior participants from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) surveys (2400 respondents per cohort). Highly cost-efficient mailed surveys will be administered biennially one to twelve years past high school (to age 30), and once every five years thereafter (to age 45). Research objectives include: (1) monitoring substance use in important segments of the general population, including, in particular, American college students; (2) distinguishing among three different types of change taking place -- period, age, and cohort; and, (3) studying the causes, consequences, and developmental patterns associated with these different types of change. Each type has different sets of determinants and different timing of action, and all three types have been found to occur for most drugs. Factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences will also be monitored. Additional objectives include documenting the natural history of drug use and related attitudes through middle adulthood, determining what transitions in social roles and social environments contribute to drug use and related attitudes, and determining what features of those roles and environments are most influential. The study will examine the importance of other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs about drugs, peer norms, counter-advertising, and role-modeling), as well as a range of potential consequences of drug use (including physical health, psychological well-being, status attainment, and role performance). The investigators will continue to facilitate use of MTF data by others for a variety of research purposes. Study results will have major implications for understanding and preventing drug use and abuse from adolescence through middle adulthood.