A Cohort-Sequential Panal Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-50

描述（由申请人提供）：该申请是为继续国家研究“监测未来”（MTF）寻求资金的两份申请之一。它寻求在队列序列研究中持续收集5年的数据。研究人员将继续测量和研究物质使用和相关因素在历史时期和整个生命过程中的变化（直到50岁），使用高中毕业生的多个样本，在12年级时首次接受MTF调查。拟议的延续将延长这些非常罕见的、具有全国代表性的面板，这些面板目前的使用寿命长达30年。极具成本效益的邮寄调查将继续每两年进行一次，直到30岁，此后每五年进行一次，直到50岁。将测量个人和社会背景因素，包括可能解释药物使用变化和稳定性的角色和社会背景转变。研究目标是：(i)继续跟踪一般成年人中重要部分的物质使用历史变化，包括大学生和其他年轻人，以及中年人；(2)记录青少年到成年中期药物使用的自然历史和相关态度，包括后来的物质使用障碍（滥用和依赖）；（三）将保险年龄范围扩大到五十岁；(4)继续研究和跟踪与艾滋病毒传播相关的风险和保护行为；(5)区分发生的三种不同类型的变化——时期、年龄和队列；(6)研究每种类型变化的原因、后果和发展模式。（这三种类型的变化有不同的决定因素和作用时间，MTF已经证明，大多数药物都发生了这三种变化。）还将监测可能解释历史趋势和群体差异的因素。药物使用的其他假设的心理、行为和社会决定因素（包括态度和信念、同伴规范和可获得性）将被测量，以及药物使用的一系列潜在后果（包括身体健康、药物滥用和依赖、心理健康、地位获得和角色表现）。调查人员将继续促进其他人使用MTF数据。研究结果应该对理解（和预防）药物使用和滥用以及艾滋病毒的传播具有重大意义。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application is one of a pair of applications that seek funding to continue the national study, Monitoring the Future (MTF). It seeks a five-year continuation of data collection in the cohort-sequential panel studies. The investigators will continue to measure and study changes in substance use and related factors across historical periods and across the life course (up to age 50), using multiple samples of high school graduates first surveyed in 12th grade by MTF. The proposed continuation will extend these very rare, nationally representative panels that now cover up to 30 years of the life span. Highly cost-efficient mailed surveys will continue to be conducted biennially to age 30, and once every five years thereafter, to age 50. Individual and social contextual factors, including role and social context transitions that may explain change and stability in drug use, will be measured. The research objectives are: (i) to continue to track historical change in substance use by important segments of the general adult population, including college students and other young adults, as well as those in middle age; (2) to document the natural history of drug use and related attitudes from adolescence into middle adulthood, including later substance use disorders (abuse and dependence); (3) to extend the age band covered to age 50; (4) to continue to study and track risk and protective behaviors associated with the spread of HIV; (5) to distinguish among three different types of change taking place-period, age, and cohort; and, (6) to study the causes, consequences, and developmental patterns associated with each type of change. (The three types of change have different determinants and timing of action and MTF has demonstrated that all three have occurred for most drugs.) Factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences will also be monitored. Other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs, peer norms, and availability) will be measured, as well as a range of potential consequences of drug use (including physical health, drug abuse and dependence, psychological well-being, status attainment, and role performance). The investigators will continue to facilitate use of MTF data by others. Study results should have major implications for understanding (and preventing) drug use and abuse, and the spread of HIV.