Monitoring the Future: A Cohort-Sequential Panel Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-55

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请寻求对监测未来（MTF）研究的面板数据收集进行为期五年的延续，该研究是1975年开始的一项正在进行的流行病学和病因学研究和报告项目。除了作为一项基础研究外，MTF已成为美国青少年、大学生、青年和中年人使用非法药物、酒精和烟草趋势的最依赖的信息来源之一。该申请旨在继续对年龄在19-30岁、35岁、40岁、45岁、50岁和现在55岁的高中毕业生（增加了互联网选项）进行邮件跟踪调查。配套的“主”应用程序旨在继续校内数据收集，并支持研究中所有数据的分析，包括过去和未来的面板数据。（NIDA要求该研究通过两个单独的申请寻求持续资助，就像它在前两轮所做的那样。）该研究的队列-序列纵向设计允许测量和区分三种类型的变化——年龄（发展）、时期（历史）和队列。每一种都有不同的决定因素，MTF已经表明，大多数药物都会发生这三种类型的变化。可以解释历史趋势和群体差异的因素也被监测。MTF旨在记录从青春期到成年中期的药物使用和相关态度的发展历史和后果，并确定影响药物使用和相关态度的个人和环境特征以及社会角色转变。还将继续研究21-40岁成年人感染艾滋病毒/艾滋病的风险和保护行为。所有这些工作将在此应用程序和同伴主应用程序下扩展到新的年份，队列和年龄。该研究将检查许多假设的药物使用决定因素（包括态度和信念以及获取）的重要性，以及一系列潜在后果（包括身心健康、地位获得、角色表现以及药物滥用和依赖）。将评估一些政策变化对青少年和年轻人的影响，包括FDA新的卷烟标签要求。MTF将尝试使用互联网回应方法，并寻求几种新方法，使其他调查人员更容易获得其小组数据。该研究的测量范围非常广泛，涵盖(a)包括酒精和烟草在内的50多种合法和非法药物及其子类别的开始、使用和停止；(b)对他们中的许多人的态度和信念，感知到的可用性和同伴规范；(c)其他行为和个人特征；(d)主要社会环境方面（家庭、工作、学校）和社会角色地位和转变；(e)与艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播有关的风险和保护行为。结果将继续阐明从青春期到成年中期的药物使用情况——包括新药物的引入——对政策、研究、预防和治疗议程具有重要意义。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application seeks a five-year continuation of the panel data collections of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, an ongoing epidemiological and etiological research and reporting project begun in 1975. In addition to being a basic research study, MTF has become one of the nations most relied upon sources of information on trends in illicit drug, alcohol, and tobacco use among American adolescents, college students, and young and middle-aged adults. This application seeks continuation of the mail follow-up surveys of high school graduates (augmented with internet options) at modal ages 19-30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and now 55. The companion "main" application seeks to continue the in-school data collections and to support the analysis of all of the data in the study, including past and future panel data. (NIDA requests that the study seek continuation funding through two separate applications, as it has done in the last two rounds.) The study's cohort-sequential longitudinal design permits the measurement and differentiation of three types of change-age (developmental), period (historical), and cohort. Each has different determinants, and all three types of change have been shown by MTF to occur for most drugs. Factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences also are monitored. MTF is designed to document the developmental history and consequences of drug use and related attitudes from adolescence through middle adulthood, and to determine the individual and contextual characteristics and social role transitions that affect use and related attitudes. Research on risk and protective behaviors for the transmission of HIV/AIDS among adults ages 21-40 also will be continued. All of this work will be extended to new years, cohorts, and ages under this application and the companion main application. The study will examine the importance of many hypothesized determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs and access), as well as a range of potential consequences (including physical and psychological health, status attainment, role performance, and drug abuse and dependence). Impacts of some policy changes on adolescents and young adults will be evaluated, including those of the new FDA cigarette labeling requirements. MTF will experiment with the use of internet response methods and pursue several new approaches to making its panel data more accessible to other investigators. The study's very broad measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for over 50 categories and sub-categories of licit and illicit drugs, including alcohol and tobacco; (b) attitudes and beliefs about many of them, perceived availability, and peer norms; (c) other behaviors and individual characteristics; (d) aspects of key social environments (home, work, school) and social role statuses and transitions; and (e) risk and protective behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS. Results will continue to elucidate drug use from adolescence through middle adulthood-including the introduction of new drugs-with major implications for the policy, research, prevention, and treatment agendas.