Synthesising behavioural and epidemiological models and their methodologies to simulate predictive spread of infectious diseases

研究背景：在这项研究中，我计划综合和推进指导整合人类传染病行为和流行病学模型的方法论。研究的目的和目的：在这项研究中，我计划综合指导人类传染病行为和流行病学模型整合的方法学。我致力于解决的核心研究问题包括：(I)在对与遵守控制策略有关的行为进行建模时，应考虑人类心理学文献中的哪些行为机制模型；(Ii)在传染病暴发的背景下，哪些数据是模拟人类行为所必需的，并指出这可能是疾病和背景所特有的；(Iii)如何改进数据收集，以满足疾病建模者的需求，同时不为利益相关者创造不切实际的资源期望；以及(Iv)将行为机制纳入传染病模型如何影响基于模拟研究的研究结果和政策影响。研究方法的新颖性(如果有的话)：我计划创建一个最新的框架来模拟传染病爆发中的行为。这项研究将加深我们对来自不同研究领域的数据流的有用性和综合它们的方法的理解。潜在的影响、应用和好处：这项拟议的项目将提供一个结构框架和模型，通过考虑人类行为来更好地预测传染病的传播，从而产生潜在的更知情的模型和研究结果，以便在发生传染病爆发时为决策提供参考。该项目鼓励跨学科的方法，同时建立方法论，未来的研究人员可以复制和改进。这项研究如何与EPSRC的职权范围有关：根据EPSRC在数学生物学方面的研究目标，拟议的项目与EPSRC职权范围有关。具体地说，这项研究涉及到他们研究生物过程和系统的先进技术的目标，因为我将研究人类行为在传染病爆发中的作用，并生成一个新的、综合的流行病学和行为模型。在EPSRC的哪些研究领域，您的研究属于数学科学全球不确定性外部伙伴-世界卫生组织(WHO)的Jonathan Polonsky和Olivier le Polain-WHO的Jonathan Polonsky和Olivier le Polain已同意以外部伙伴的角色支持该项目。他们同意提供与该项目有关的数据，并在必要时提供他们的专门知识来支持该项目。然而，该项目的进展并不需要来自世卫组织的数据。具体地说，他们已经表示，他们有2018-2020年刚果民主共和国埃博拉疫情的数据集，如果需要，他们愿意提供。除了世卫组织，华威数据科学实验室也是一个相关的组织，他们研究了基于社交媒体数据预测人类行动，这将是一个很好的联系来源。

The context of the research: In this study, I plan to synthesise and advance the methodologies guiding integrating behavioural and epidemiological models for human infectious diseases.The aims and objectives of the research: In this study, I plan to synthesise the methodologies guiding integrating behavioural and epidemiological models for human infectious diseases. The core research questions I aim to address include: (i) which behavioural mechanistic models in the human psychology literature should be considered when modelling behaviour related to adherence of control strategies; (ii) which data are necessary to model human behaviour in the context of infectious disease outbreaks, noting that this may be disease and context specific; (iii) how can data collection be improved to meet the needs of disease modellers while not creating unrealistic resource expectations for stakeholders; and (iv) how incorporating behavioural mechanisms to infectious disease models affects the research findings and policy implications based on simulation studies.The novelty of the research methodology (if any): I plan to create an updated framework for modelling behaviour in infectious disease outbreaks. This research will enhance our understanding of the usefulness of data flows from various research domains and ways to synthesise them.The potential impact, applications, and benefits: This proposed project will provide a structural framework and model to better predict the spread of infectious diseases through considering human behaviour, thus leading to potentially better-informed models and research findings to inform policy decisions in the event of infectious disease outbreaks. The project encourages interdisciplinary approaches whilst establishing methodologies that future researchers may replicate and improve upon.How the research relates to the EPSRC remit: The proposed project relates to the EPSRC remit according to its research goals in mathematical biology. Specifically, the research relates to their goal of advancing techniques to investigate biological processes and systems since I will be studying the role of human behaviour in infectious disease outbreaks and generating a novel, integrated epidemiological and behavioural model.Into which EPSRC research areas does your research fallMathematical SciencesGlobal uncertaintiesExternal Partner - World Health Organization (WHO) - Jonathan Polonsky and Olivier le Polain of the WHO have agreed to support the project in the roles of external partners. They have agreed to provide data if relevant to the project and to provide their expertise as needed to support the project. However, data from the WHO is not required for the project to progress. Specifically, they have indicated that they have a dataset from the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that they would be willing to provide if needed. In addition to the WHO, the Warwick Data Science Lab is a relevant group that have studied predicting human actions based on social media data and would be an excellent source to reach out to.