Synthesising behavioural and epidemiological models and their methodologies to simulate predictive spread of infectious diseases

综合行为和流行病学模型及其方法来模拟传染病的预测传播

• 批准号: 2597405
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2597405
• 关键词: Synthesising; behavioural; epidemiological; models; their

The context of the research: In this study, I plan to synthesise and advance the methodologies guiding integrating behavioural and epidemiological models for human infectious diseases.The aims and objectives of the research: In this study, I plan to synthesise the methodologies guiding integrating behavioural and epidemiological models for human infectious diseases. The core research questions I aim to address include: (i) which behavioural mechanistic models in the human psychology literature should be considered when modelling behaviour related to adherence of control strategies; (ii) which data are necessary to model human behaviour in the context of infectious disease outbreaks, noting that this may be disease and context specific; (iii) how can data collection be improved to meet the needs of disease modellers while not creating unrealistic resource expectations for stakeholders; and (iv) how incorporating behavioural mechanisms to infectious disease models affects the research findings and policy implications based on simulation studies.The novelty of the research methodology (if any): I plan to create an updated framework for modelling behaviour in infectious disease outbreaks. This research will enhance our understanding of the usefulness of data flows from various research domains and ways to synthesise them.The potential impact, applications, and benefits: This proposed project will provide a structural framework and model to better predict the spread of infectious diseases through considering human behaviour, thus leading to potentially better-informed models and research findings to inform policy decisions in the event of infectious disease outbreaks. The project encourages interdisciplinary approaches whilst establishing methodologies that future researchers may replicate and improve upon.How the research relates to the EPSRC remit: The proposed project relates to the EPSRC remit according to its research goals in mathematical biology. Specifically, the research relates to their goal of advancing techniques to investigate biological processes and systems since I will be studying the role of human behaviour in infectious disease outbreaks and generating a novel, integrated epidemiological and behavioural model.Into which EPSRC research areas does your research fallMathematical SciencesGlobal uncertaintiesExternal Partner - World Health Organization (WHO) - Jonathan Polonsky and Olivier le Polain of the WHO have agreed to support the project in the roles of external partners. They have agreed to provide data if relevant to the project and to provide their expertise as needed to support the project. However, data from the WHO is not required for the project to progress. Specifically, they have indicated that they have a dataset from the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that they would be willing to provide if needed. In addition to the WHO, the Warwick Data Science Lab is a relevant group that have studied predicting human actions based on social media data and would be an excellent source to reach out to.

研究背景：在这项研究中，我计划综合和推进的方法指导整合行为和流行病学模型的人类传染病。研究的目的和目标：在这项研究中，我计划综合的方法指导整合行为和流行病学模型的人类传染病。核心研究问题，我的目的是解决包括：（一）在人类心理学文献中的行为机制模型应考虑到与遵守控制策略的行为建模;（二）哪些数据是必要的，以模拟人类行为的背景下，传染病爆发，注意到这可能是疾病和具体情况; ㈢如何改进数据收集工作，以满足疾病建模者的需要，同时又不给利益攸关方造成不切实际的资源期望;和（四）将行为机制纳入传染病模型如何影响基于模拟研究的研究结果和政策含义。研究的新奇方法（如有）：我计划创建一个更新的框架，用于模拟传染病爆发时的行为。这项研究将提高我们对来自不同研究领域的数据流的有用性以及综合它们的方法的理解。潜在的影响，应用和好处：这个拟议项目将提供一个结构框架和模型，通过考虑人类行为，从而产生可能更知情的模型和研究结果，为传染病爆发时的政策决定提供信息。该项目鼓励跨学科的方法，同时建立方法，未来的研究人员可以复制和改进。研究如何涉及EPSRC的职权范围：拟议的项目涉及EPSRC职权范围根据其在数学生物学的研究目标。具体来说，这项研究涉及到他们的目标，即推进研究生物过程和系统的技术，因为我将研究人类行为在传染病爆发中的作用，并产生一种新的，综合流行病学和行为模型。EPSRC的研究属于哪些研究领域数学科学全球不确定性外部合作伙伴-世界卫生组织（世卫组织）-世界卫生组织的Jonathan Polonsky和Olivier le Polain同意以外部合作伙伴的身份支持该项目。他们同意提供与项目有关的数据，并提供支持项目所需的专门知识。然而，该项目的进展并不需要世界卫生组织的数据。具体而言，他们表示，他们有一个来自2018-2020年刚果民主共和国埃博拉疫情的数据集，如果需要，他们愿意提供。除了世界卫生组织，沃里克数据科学实验室也是一个相关的组织，他们研究了基于社交媒体数据预测人类行为，这将是一个很好的信息来源。