Impact-based forecasting for the renewable energy sector

在未来20-30年内，英国的能源系统将发生重大变化，因为它将过渡到低碳，净零，更可持续的世界，因为它越来越依赖于依赖天气的资源，特别是风能和太阳能。在气候变化的情况下，洪水和风暴等极端事件变得更加频繁和严重，热浪和野火等其他新出现的危险变得更加普遍。洪水、干旱和风暴严重影响基本基础设施，包括能源系统及其提供的电力、粮食、水和运输等基本服务。迫切需要找到更好的方法，为极端天气事件带来的挑战做好更充分的准备和更有弹性。我们的电力系统对极端天气事件的适应能力--特别是其为极端天气事件做好准备和防止电力供应中断的能力，以及社会在停电时遵循警告以保护其公民并提供基本服务的能力-急需重新评估我们面临的挑战是如何更好地预测高影响力的极端事件，建立复原力并更好地装备我们的能源系统和基础设施？准确的天气预报是不够的。世界气象组织关于预报和警报最佳做法的指导方针不仅是预报天气事件，如暴雨或风暴，而且是预报其影响。基于影响和风险的预测从确定性的陈述，如“明天的天气将看到50毫米的降雨量和40英里每小时的阵风”，到面向影响的陈述，如“明天的天气将导致该地区的道路封闭和能源供应中断”。基于影响的风险沟通方法--既针对公众，也针对部门利益相关者--已被证明能更好地建立对预警系统的信任，从而采取更有效的行动，联合国仙台框架认可了基于影响的方法的日益增长的潜力。基于影响的预测有可能传递信息，从而采取适当的行动，根据不同的影响改进一系列情景的规划，并包含关于预测置信度的信息，以便更好地决策。因此，现在需要及时开展研究，将基于影响的预测方法结合起来，以加强能源网络对极端事件的复原力和反应。然而，要为能源部门建立一个基于影响的预测和预警系统，就需要逐步改变共同设计预测系统以及分享和交流基于风险的信息的方式。其目的是通过探索能源部门下一代基于影响的预报的潜力，应对极端事件带来的挑战;探索极端天气事件、能源中断和能源需求之间的相互关系，以应对气候变化中更加频繁的极端天气现象;共同制定情景、工具以及基于影响和风险的模型（例如，包括暴露、脆弱性和风险），以便与国家环保总局和环境安全局等利益攸关方一起预测和评估与能源部门有关的极端事件;探讨在不同空间尺度上对能源部门进行基于影响的预测的机会和益处（例如，在城市、郊区和乡村位置之间，或者在区域和国家尺度之间）和预报时间尺度（例如，提出一个能源部门决策支持框架，支持实施基于影响的业务预报系统，包括规定如何设计净零能源系统，以限制与极端天气有关的停电的影响，以及需要哪些新的业务程序来为极端事件做准备。

Over the next 20-30 years, the UK's energy system will undergo significant change as it transitions to a low carbon, Net-Zero, more sustainable world as it becomes increasingly dependent on weather-dependent resources, notably wind and solar power. This transition must be managed in the face of climate change, in which extreme events such as flooding and storms are becoming more frequent and severe, and other emerging hazards, such as heatwaves and wildfires, become more prevalent. Floods, drought and storms have serious impacts on essential infrastructure, including energy systems and the essential services they provide for power, food, water, and transport. There is a critical need to find better ways to be more prepared for and more resilient to the challenge posed by extreme weather events.The resilience of our electricity system to extreme weather events - in particular its ability to prepare for and prevent interruptions to supply of power, and the ability of society to follow warnings to protect its citizens and provide essential services in event of electricity outages - is in critical need of re-evaluation. The challenge is how can we better forecast high-impact extreme events, building resilience and better equip our energy system and infrastructure? Accurate weather forecasts are not enough. The WMO's guidelines on best practise for forecasting and warnings is evolving from not just forecasting weather events, such as heavy rainfall or storms, but forecasting their impacts. Impact- and risk-based forecasts move from deterministic statements such as "the weather tomorrow will see 50 mm of rainfall with wind gusts of 40 mph" to impact-oriented statements such as "the weather tomorrow will cause road closures and energy supply outages in this region". Impact-based approaches to risk communication - both to the general public and to sectoral stakeholders - have been shown to better build trust in warning systems leading to more effective actions, with the increasing potential of impact-based approaches recognised in the UN's Sendai Framework.Impact-based forecasts have the potential to relay messages that enable appropriate actions, improve planning for a range of scenarios based on different impacts, and contain information about level of confidence in the forecast for better decision-making. Thus there is a timely need to develop research integrating impact-based forecasting approaches to enhance the energy network's resilience and response to extreme events. To achieve an operational impact-based forecasting and warning system for the energy sector, however, requires a step-change in the way forecasting systems are co-designed and risk-based information is shared and communicated. The aim is to address challenges posed by extreme events by exploring the potential of next generation impact-based forecasts for the energy sector.Explore the correlations between extreme weather events, energy outages and energy demand, both now and in the future in response to more frequent extreme weather phenomena in a changing climate;Co-develop scenarios, tools and impact- and risk-based models (e.g. that incorporate exposure, vulnerability and risk) for the prediction and assessment of energy-sector relevant extreme events with stakeholders such as SEPA and SSE;Explore the opportunities and benefits of impact-based forecasting for the energy sector on different spatial scales (e.g., between city, suburban, and rural locations, or between regional and national scales) and forecasting time scales (e.g., nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, long-range probabilistic forecasting); andPropose an energy sector decision-support framework that supports the implementation of an operational impact-based forecasting system, including provision for how can a net-zero energy system be designed to limit the impact of extreme weather-related outages, and what new operational procedures are needed to prepare for extreme events.