Impact-based forecasting for the renewable energy sector

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Over the next 20-30 years, the UK's energy system will undergo significant change as it transitions to a low carbon, Net-Zero, more sustainable world as it becomes increasingly dependent on weather-dependent resources, notably wind and solar power. This transition must be managed in the face of climate change, in which extreme events such as flooding and storms are becoming more frequent and severe, and other emerging hazards, such as heatwaves and wildfires, become more prevalent. Floods, drought and storms have serious impacts on essential infrastructure, including energy systems and the essential services they provide for power, food, water, and transport. There is a critical need to find better ways to be more prepared for and more resilient to the challenge posed by extreme weather events.The resilience of our electricity system to extreme weather events - in particular its ability to prepare for and prevent interruptions to supply of power, and the ability of society to follow warnings to protect its citizens and provide essential services in event of electricity outages - is in critical need of re-evaluation. The challenge is how can we better forecast high-impact extreme events, building resilience and better equip our energy system and infrastructure? Accurate weather forecasts are not enough. The WMO's guidelines on best practise for forecasting and warnings is evolving from not just forecasting weather events, such as heavy rainfall or storms, but forecasting their impacts. Impact- and risk-based forecasts move from deterministic statements such as "the weather tomorrow will see 50 mm of rainfall with wind gusts of 40 mph" to impact-oriented statements such as "the weather tomorrow will cause road closures and energy supply outages in this region". Impact-based approaches to risk communication - both to the general public and to sectoral stakeholders - have been shown to better build trust in warning systems leading to more effective actions, with the increasing potential of impact-based approaches recognised in the UN's Sendai Framework.Impact-based forecasts have the potential to relay messages that enable appropriate actions, improve planning for a range of scenarios based on different impacts, and contain information about level of confidence in the forecast for better decision-making. Thus there is a timely need to develop research integrating impact-based forecasting approaches to enhance the energy network's resilience and response to extreme events. To achieve an operational impact-based forecasting and warning system for the energy sector, however, requires a step-change in the way forecasting systems are co-designed and risk-based information is shared and communicated. The aim is to address challenges posed by extreme events by exploring the potential of next generation impact-based forecasts for the energy sector.Explore the correlations between extreme weather events, energy outages and energy demand, both now and in the future in response to more frequent extreme weather phenomena in a changing climate;Co-develop scenarios, tools and impact- and risk-based models (e.g. that incorporate exposure, vulnerability and risk) for the prediction and assessment of energy-sector relevant extreme events with stakeholders such as SEPA and SSE;Explore the opportunities and benefits of impact-based forecasting for the energy sector on different spatial scales (e.g., between city, suburban, and rural locations, or between regional and national scales) and forecasting time scales (e.g., nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, long-range probabilistic forecasting); andPropose an energy sector decision-support framework that supports the implementation of an operational impact-based forecasting system, including provision for how can a net-zero energy system be designed to limit the impact of extreme weather-related outages, and what new operational procedures are needed to prepare for extreme events.