Flood-Inducing Atmospheric and Antecedent Conditions: Variation and Change Across the UK and Europe

该项目的目的是确定极端引发洪水的大气模式(以及之前的条件)，并了解它们在空间上(跨越英国和欧洲不同的水文气候)和时间上(在过去和未来几十年)是如何变化的。这项工作还将确定这些引发不同类型洪水事件的驱动因素的最坏情况，以及这种关系在空间和时间上的变化。洪水在英国和欧洲都有严重的社会经济和环境影响。它们还可能导致生命损失。2021年，席卷比利时和德国的洪水造成约200人死亡。2022年，英国的风暴尤妮斯被贴上了几十年来最严重风暴的标签，导致全国范围内发生严重洪灾，扰乱了交通联系，破坏了基础设施(Fekete&Sandholz，2021年；英国气象局，2022年)。政府间气候变化专门委员会还警告说，随着气温的进一步上升，未来洪水事件可能造成的破坏可能是毁灭性的和不可逆转的。由于气候变化将加剧水文循环并导致更极端的事件，因此研究洪水变异性和洪水诱因对缓解措施至关重要(IPCC，2022；Pattinson&Lane，2011；Wilby&Quinn，2013)。随着气候的变化，整个英国和欧洲的洪水频率和强度预计将在未来增加。然而，这种变化及其在时间和空间上的分布尚不清楚，并将因区域以前的条件和水文气候而有所不同。此外，洪水将根据季节和年代变化而变化。历史上的古气候研究表明，洪水多发期发生在寒冷的天气中，而当代的其他研究表明，由于大气水分含量的增加，随着全球气温的升高，洪水将会增加。虽然随着气温的升高，大气可以容纳更多的水分，降水也会增加，但这是否会转化为洪水还不太清楚(Bronnimann等人，2022年；气象局，2022年；Stucki等人，2012年)。因此，重要的是要了解诱发洪水事件的大气和以前条件之间的历史和当前关系，以便能够更准确地作出基于气温上升和大气水分含量的未来预测。也缺乏证据表明，过去两个世纪洪水状况的变化与人为气候变化有关，未来的预测并不完全清楚和准确(Bronnimann等人，2022年)。洪水频率和强度的变化取决于许多不同的诱因，如大气和以前的条件(NIED等人，2014年)。在我的项目中，我将研究不同类型的洪水事件之间的关系，以及英国和欧洲不同水文气候中的这些诱因将在这个项目中进行研究。将研究这种关系在不同时间尺度上的变异性，如亚季节和年代际。这个DTP项目将着眼于大气模式的分类(AOPP子部门)，并使用先验和水文数据(SOGE部门)来研究这些驱动因素如何在英国和欧洲的不同时间和空间引发不同的洪水类型事件(牛津大学和弗莱堡大学的监督员)。到目前为止，引发洪水事件的大气和前期条件的相对重要性以及这种情况可能如何随着气候变化而变化尚不清楚。同样重要的是要了解这些变量在未来可能会发生怎样的变化。还将在单个气象变量尺度上考虑温度变化、降水和洪水事件之间的关系，以促进这一研究差距。该项目是跨学科的，需要了解大气层和水圈(因此要求访问AOPP)。

The aim of this project is to identify extreme flood-inducing atmospheric patterns (and antecedent conditions) and understand how they vary both spatially (across different hydroclimates in the UK and Europe) and temporally (over past and future decades). The work will also identify the worse-case scenario of these driver for inducing different types of flood events and how this relationship varies spatially and temporally.Floods have severe socioeconomic and environmental impacts across the UK and Europe. They also can result in loss of life. During 2021, flooding across Belgium and Germany killed an estimated 200 people. In 2022, Storm Eunice in the UK was labelled the most severe storm in decades, resulting in severe flooding across the country which disrupted transport links and damaged infrastructure (Fekete & Sandholz, 2021; Met Office, 2022). The IPCC has also warned that with further increase in temperatures, the damage that future flood events could have may be devastating and irreversible. Research intounderstanding flood variability and flood inducers if therefore vital for mitigation measures as climate change is set to intensify the hydrological cycle and result in more extreme events (IPCC, 2022; Pattinson & Lane, 2011; Wilby & Quinn, 2013). Flood frequency and intensity is projected to increase into the future as the climate changes, across the UK and Europe. The variability and distribution temporally and spatially of this, however, is not clearly understood and will differ depending on regional antecedent conditions and hydroclimates. Furthermore, floods will vary depending on seasonal and decadal variability. Historical paleoclimate studies suggest that flood-rich periods occurred during cold weather, whilst other contemporary studies suggest that floods will increase as global temperature increase, due to elevated atmospheric water content. Although as temperatures increase, precipitation is set to increase as the atmosphere can hold more water, whether this translates into floodevents is less clear (Bronnimann et al, 2022; Met Office, 2022; Stucki et al, 2012). It is therefore important to understand the historical and current relationship between atmospheric and antecedent conditions for inducing flood events, so that future projections based on increasing temperatures and atmospheric water content can be made more accurate. There is also a lack of evidence to suggest that the changes in flood regimes over the last two centuries are linked to anthropogenic climate change, and future projections are not fully clear and accurate (Bronnimann et al, 2022).Changes in flood frequency and intensity are dependent on a multitude of different inducers, such as atmospheric and antecedent conditions (Nied et al, 2014). In my project I will study the relationship between different types of flood events and these inducers across varying hydroclimates in the UK and Europe will be studied in this project. The variability of this relationship on different temporal scales such as the sub -seasonal and decadal will be studied. This DTP project will look at classifying atmospheric patterns (AOPP subdepartment) and use antecedent and hydrological data (SoGE department) to study how these drivers induced different flood type events over time and space across the UK and Europe (Supervisors from Oxford and University of Freiburg). To date, the relative importance ofatmospheric and antecedent conditions inducing flood events and how this may change with climate change is unclear. It is also important to understand how these variables could potentially change into the future. The relationship between the variable temperature, precipitation and flood events will also be considered at the individual meteorological variable scale to contribute to this research gap. This project is interdisciplinary and will require the understanding of the atmosphere and hydrosphere (hence the request for visiting status at AOPP).