Natural Adaptive Capability of Coral Reef Islands to Sea-level Rise and Implications for Future Human Occupation

人们普遍预计，海平面上升将使珊瑚礁平台上形成的低洼岛屿在几十年内因洪水增加而无法居住。这种预测主要是基于这样的假设，即岛屿在地质上是惰性地貌，而实际上它们有能力在形态上对海平面的变化作出反应。具体来说，过洗过程可以提高岛屿的波峰水平，这意味着岛屿是动态的，不会淹没在原地。这种观念上的变化对珊瑚礁岛屿社区如何适应气候变化具有影响。该项目将调查珊瑚礁岛屿对海平面上升的自然适应情况，并将进行小规模实验室试验，调查珊瑚礁岛屿如何适应海平面上升。物理模型的结果将被用来验证一个形态动力学数值模型，该模型将用于进一步探索控制岛屿适应的相关因素。在马尔代夫实地工作的基础上，将利用数值模型评估不同海平面和波浪气候情景下几种珊瑚礁岛屿类型的未来轨迹。最后，将评估这些轨迹的社会影响，并探讨人类的适应战略。这个博士项目提供了获得一系列高级技能的机会，因为该项目包括在最先进的工程实验室中进行小规模物理建模，先进的数值建模和对珊瑚礁岛屿的实地调查。博士候选人还将花费大量时间与外部合作伙伴，进一步增强他们的知识和技能。在项目结束时，博士候选人应立即受雇为博士后研究员或GO，非政府组织或咨询公司的高级海岸/海洋顾问。

It is a widespread expectation that sea-level rise will render low-lying islands formed on coral reef platforms uninhabitable within decades due to increased flooding. Such projections are largely founded on assumptions that islands are geologically inert landforms, whereas in reality they have the ability to morphologically respond to changing sea levels. Specifically, overwash processes can raise the island crest level, implying that islands are dynamic and will not drown in place. Such change in perception has implications for how reef island communities can adapt to climate change. This project will investigate this natural adaptation of coral reef islands to sea-level rise.Small-scale laboratory experiments will be conducted to investigate how coral reef islands adapt to sea-level rise. The physical model results will be used to validate a morphodynamic numerical model which will be used to further explore the relevant factors controlling island adaption. Informed by fieldwork in the Maldives, the numerical model will be used to evaluate, for different sea-level and wave climate scenarios, the future trajectories of several coral reef island types. Finally, the societal implications of these trajectories will be assessed and human adaptation strategies will be explored. This PhD project provides the opportunity to gain a range of advanced skills as the project includes small-scale physical modelling in a state-of-the-art engineering laboratory, advanced numerical modelling and field surveys on a reef island. The PhD candidate will also spend a significant amount of time with the external partners, further augmenting their knowledge and skills. By the end of the project, the PhD candidate should be imminently employable as a post-doctoral researcher or a high-level coastal/marine adviser in a GO, NGO or consultancy.