Modelling the drivers of population change in British bats using citizen science data

监测方案提供了宝贵的数据，可用于评估环境迅速变化情况下的生物多样性状况，对于制定养护优先事项至关重要。蝙蝠是栖息地质量和气候变化的理想指标，因为它们分布在全球范围内，并提供基本的生态系统服务[1]。据信，许多蝙蝠在世纪经历了大幅下降[2]。人类干扰、农业实践、城市化、气候变化和原生森林面积被假设为这些变化的重要决定因素，但缺乏定量分析[3]。调查、监测和保护蝙蝠种群的必要性已经被认识到一段时间了，尤其是在欧洲，蝙蝠受到EUROBATS协议的保护。自1996年以来，作为国家蝙蝠监测计划（NBMP）的一部分，英国一直对蝙蝠进行系统监测。由蝙蝠保护信托基金会（BCT）创建和指导的NBMP吸引了英国各地数千名公民科学家。NBMP是世界上规模最大，运行时间最长的系统性蝙蝠监测计划，为17种本土蝙蝠中的11种提供了统计学上的强劲人口趋势[4]。NBMP数据有助于英国生物多样性指标C4a（英国优先物种的地位）和C8（更广泛的农村哺乳动物：蝙蝠）。来自NBMP的数据已被用于了解物种特异性生态，但不是调查空间和时间上的种群趋势的驱动因素。对NBMP数据的现有分析显示，自1997年以来，大多数英国蝙蝠数量增加或保持稳定[4]。然而，一些方法问题仍未解决，特别是关于栖息地计数的使用，这是公民科学家贡献数据的一种有吸引力的方式，但被认为不太可靠。目前还不清楚如何最好地结合联合收割机的数据，从多种调查技术，也没有信息，如何在蝙蝠种群的趋势变化的空间。解决这些问题将进一步提高NBMP数据的潜在价值，用于检验有关生物多样性变化的假设。

Monitoring programmes provide valuable data for evaluating the state of biodiversity in the face of rapid environmental change and are vital for the formulation of conservation priorities. Bats are ideal candidates as indicators of habitat quality and climate change as they are globally distributed and provide essential ecosystem services [1]. It is believed that many bats experienced substantial declines during the 20th century [2]. Human disturbance, agricultural practices, urbanisation, climate change and native forest area are hypothesised as important determinants of these changes but quantitative analysis is lacking [3]. The need to survey, monitor and protect bat populations has been recognized for some time, not least in Europe where bats are protected under the EUROBATS agreement. Bats have been monitored systematically in Great Britain since 1996 as part of the National Bat Monitoring Program (NBMP). The NBMP, created and directed by the Bat Conservation Trust (BCT), engages thousands of citizen scientists across Britain. The NBMP is the largest, longest running systematic bat monitoring programme in the world, producing statistically robust population trends for 11 of the 17 native bat species [4]. NBMP data contributes to the UK Biodiversity Indicators C4a (Status of UK priority species) and C8 (Mammals of the wider countryside: Bats). Data from the NBMP has been used to understand species-specific ecology, but not to investigate the drivers of population trends in space and time. Existing analysis of the NBMP data has revealed that the majority of British bats have increased in abundance or remained stable since 1997 [4]. However, some methodological issues remain unsolved, particularly around the use of roost counts, which are an attractive way for citizen scientists to contribute data but are considered less reliable. It is also unclear how best to combine data from multiple survey techniques, and there is no information about how trends in bat populations vary in space. Solving these issues will further enhance the potential value of the NBMP data for testing hypotheses about biodiversity change.