Seasonality, Environment, and Infectious Diseases

季节性、环境和传染病

• 批准号: 7276911
• 负责人: David Norman Fisman
• 金额: $ 11.16万
• 依托单位: HOSPITAL FOR SICK CHLDRN (TORONTO)
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-07-01 至 2008-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7276911
• 关键词: Seasonality; Environment; Infectious; Diseases

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Objectives: The seasonality of infectious disease occurrence has been recognized since ancient times, but mechanisms underlying seasonality remain poorly defined. While environmental exposures (e.g., changes in weather or environmental pollutants) could contribute to seasonality, other mechanisms (e.g., seasonal changes in population behavior or co-occurrence of infectious diseases) might also result in seasonal disease occurrence. Current efforts to define the role of environmental exposures in infectious disease occurrence are limited by the sparse nature of public health surveillance data, and confounding of associations when aggregated exposure or outcome data are used. The case-crossover study design is a novel epidemiologic technique useful for defining causal relationships between repeated transient exposures and rare outcomes. It has proven useful in the study of environmental influences on non-infectious disease, but has not been used previously in the study of infectious diseases of public health importance. Our objectives are to: 1. better elucidate the epidemiologic relationship between acute changes in the physical environment (e.g., weather, environmental pollutants) and the occurrence of infectious diseases of public health importance. 2. define the role of case-crossover study design as a tool for study of the role of environment in communicable disease occurrence. Our specific aims include use of the case-crossover study design to determine the extent to which the seasonality of occurrence of selected infectious diseases in Philadelphia County, PA, is a result of seasonal variation in acute environmental exposures (weather patterns and air quality), and the identification of optimal control selection strategies when case-crossover design is used to study infectious diseases. The latter aim will be achieved using mathematical modeling.

描述（由申请人提供）：目的：自古以来，传染病发生的季节性就已被认识到，但季节性的机制仍然不清楚。虽然环境暴露（例如，天气或环境污染物的变化）可能导致季节性，其他机制（例如，人口行为的季节性变化或传染病的共同发生）也可能导致季节性疾病的发生。目前的努力，以确定环境暴露在传染病发生的作用是有限的公共卫生监测数据的稀疏性，并混淆的关联时，使用汇总的暴露或结果数据。病例交叉研究设计是一种新的流行病学技术，可用于确定重复短暂暴露与罕见结局之间的因果关系。它已被证明在研究环境对非传染性疾病的影响方面是有用的，但以前还没有被用于研究具有公共卫生重要性的传染病。我们的目标是：1.更好地阐明物理环境的急性变化之间的流行病学关系（例如，天气、环境污染物）和影响公共卫生的传染病的发生。2.定义病例交叉研究设计作为研究环境在传染病发生中作用的工具的作用。我们的具体目标包括使用的情况下，交叉研究设计，以确定在何种程度上选定的传染病发生的季节性在费城县，PA，是由于季节性变化的急性环境暴露（天气模式和空气质量），并确定最佳的控制选择策略时，病例交叉设计用于研究传染病。后一个目标将使用数学建模来实现。