Resilient treescapes for a changing climate: a mathematical approach

预计气候变化将导致全球范围内的森林密度和物种分布偏离当前的水平。同时，长期天气模式的预测扭曲将通过提供有利的生存条件来鼓励病原体成功入侵。这两个因素加在一起，对地球上的森林及其所支持的丰富生物多样性构成了紧迫的威胁。为了确保树篱在气候变化面前的生存，世界各国政府需要强有力的工具来支持对假想的未来入侵的预测和管理。该项目旨在探索有效和经济的策略，以建立气候适应性的树木保护区。我们将通过构建树木疾病传播的密度依赖的时空随机波前模型并将该模型扩展到国家尺度来实现这一目标。我们将把预测的变化纳入树木分布，并使用该模型来预测气候变化下疾病的长期传播。特别是，我们将重点关注橡树行军蛾在英国的传播。最后，我们将纳入缓解策略，并将我们的模型用于情景测试。该项目的主要目的是了解气候变化对树病传播的影响，并就气候变化的进展如何最好地管理英国疾病爆发向DEFRA等机构提供建议。我们的进展可以从五个目标来评估：1)建立一个复杂的树木疾病传播的时空模型。2)利用该模型预测OPM何时达到无虫害边界。3)在全国范围内推广。4)确定OPM在气候变化下的长期扩散。确定缓解/干预战略的可行性。

Climate change is expected to lead to worldwide deviations from current forest densities and species distributions. Simultaneously, the predicted distortions in long-term weather patterns will encourage successful pathogen invasion by providing favourable conditions for survival. These two factors combine into an urgent threat to Earth's forests and the rich biodiversity they support. To ensure the survival of treescapes in the face of climate change, world governments require robust tools to support the prediction and management of hypothetical future invasions.This project seeks to explore effective and economical strategies for building climate-resilient treescapes. We will achieve this by constructing a density-dependent, spatio-temporal stochastic wavefront model of tree disease spread and extending the model to a national scale. We will incorporate predicted changes to tree distributions and use the model to predict long-term disease spread in the face of climate change. In particular, we will focus on the spread of Oak Processionary Moth in the UK. Finally, we will incorporate mitigation strategies and use our model for scenario testing. The primary aims of the project are to understand the effect of climate change on arboreal disease propagation and to advise agencies such as DEFRA on how best to manage disease outbreaks in the UK as climate change progresses. Our progress can be assessed against five objectives:1) Construct a sophisticated spatio-temporal model of tree disease propagation. 2) Use the model to predict when OPM will reach pest-free boundaries.3) Expand the model to a national scale.4) Determine long term spread of OPM in the face of climate change. 5) Determine viability of mitigation/intervention strategies.