Investigating the potential for re-emergence of wheat stem rust in a changing climate

小麦秆锈病是小麦和大麦的一种众所周知的破坏性疾病，并且在全世界大多数小麦种植区发生。今天，在西欧，茎锈病病原体，禾柄锈菌f。sp. triangulae（Pgt）在消失了几十年后正在经历复苏。Pgt也非常适合温暖的条件，随着气候的变化，这可能会促进茎锈病流行的频率在以前不适合其扩散的地区扩大。因此，我们的分析表明，在过去的25年里，气候条件已成为越来越有利于PGT的增长和感染在英国。随着西欧茎锈病零星发病率的增加，有必要了解该地区茎锈病病原体的多样性，以及未来气候变化如何影响英国小麦茎锈病重新出现的风险。本项目的目的是评估Pgt在气候变化中对英国谷物的威胁。为了实现这一目标，该项目将（i）使用我们的马普尔（移动的和实时植物病害）诊断平台，以评估西欧各地Pgt的遗传多样性，（ii）表型鉴定这些Pgt分离株，以了解它们对小麦生产的威胁，（iii）评估疾病发展期间Pgt分离物的选择的温度响应，以及（iv）利用这些新知识开发一个模型，探索气候变化对未来疾病风险的影响。

Wheat stem rust is a notoriously damaging disease of wheat and barley and occurs in most wheat growing areas worldwide. Today, in western Europe the stem rust pathogen, Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici (Pgt), is experiencing a resurgence after many decades of absence. Pgt is also well suited to warm conditions, and as climate changes this could facilitate the expansion in frequency of stem rust epidemics in regions previously unsuitable for its proliferation. Accordingly, our analysis has shown that over the past 25 years climatic conditions have become increasingly conducive for Pgt growth and infection in the UK. With the number of sporadic incidences of stem rust in western Europe increasing there is a need to understand the diversity of the stem rust pathogen in this region and how future changes in climate may impact the risk of wheat stem rust re-emergence in the UK.The aim of this project is to evaluate the threat of Pgt to UK cereals in a changing climate. To achieve this the project will (i) use our MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) diagnostics platform to assess the genetic diversity of Pgt aross western Europe, (ii) phenotypically characterise these Pgt isolates to understand their threat to wheat production, (iii) assess the temperature responses of a selection of Pgt isolates during disease development and (iv) use this new knowledge to develop a model to explore the effects of climate change on future disease risk.