The Long-Term Human Capital Impacts of Resettlement: Evidence from Soviet Oppression in Lithuania Lithuania, 1940s to now

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I hypothesize that political violence, and especially forced resettlement in the USSR has had long-term negative impacts on human capital in Lithuania. Historians maintain that the main target of political violence in the Soviet regime were persons with relatively high levels of education -politicians, lawyers, teachers, businessmen and landowners. If this is true, it conceivable that higher levels of political violence during Stalin's regime may have led to lower levels of human capital at origin localities during the time of terror. Subsequently, it is estimated that less than 25% of deportees ever returned (Anusauskas, 2012). In turn, we would expect long-lasting impacts through path dependence. This hypothesis is potentially supported the Life in Transition survey, which shows that the grandchildren of persons subjected to Soviet oppressions have higher levels of education today (Life in Transition Survey, 2016). Given the targets and the scale of oppression, with at least 10% of the population at the time being affected directly, origin localities that experienced relatively higher levels of deportees could have measurably worse human capital outcomes until today. Through this work, I will construct a novel dataset consisting of deportation intensity throughout origin localities in Lithuania and long-term human capital and political outcomes.