The Long-Term Human Capital Impacts of Resettlement: Evidence from Soviet Oppression in Lithuania Lithuania, 1940s to now

我假设政治暴力，特别是苏联的强制重新安置对立陶宛的人力资本产生了长期的负面影响。历史学家认为，苏联政权政治暴力的主要目标是受教育程度相对较高的人——政治家、律师、教师、商人和土地所有者。如果这是真的，那么可以想象，在斯大林政权时期，较高水平的政治暴力可能导致恐怖时期来源国的人力资本水平降低。随后，据估计只有不到25%的被驱逐者返回（Anusauskas, 2012）。反过来，我们期望通过路径依赖产生持久的影响。这一假设潜在地支持了转型生活调查，该调查显示，遭受苏联压迫的人的孙辈今天的教育水平更高（转型生活调查，2016）。考虑到压迫的目标和规模，当时至少有10%的人口受到直接影响，直到今天，被驱逐者人数相对较高的原籍地的人力资本结果可能会明显更差。通过这项工作，我将构建一个新的数据集，包括立陶宛原籍地的驱逐强度以及长期人力资本和政治结果。

I hypothesize that political violence, and especially forced resettlement in the USSR has had long-term negative impacts on human capital in Lithuania. Historians maintain that the main target of political violence in the Soviet regime were persons with relatively high levels of education -politicians, lawyers, teachers, businessmen and landowners. If this is true, it conceivable that higher levels of political violence during Stalin's regime may have led to lower levels of human capital at origin localities during the time of terror. Subsequently, it is estimated that less than 25% of deportees ever returned (Anusauskas, 2012). In turn, we would expect long-lasting impacts through path dependence. This hypothesis is potentially supported the Life in Transition survey, which shows that the grandchildren of persons subjected to Soviet oppressions have higher levels of education today (Life in Transition Survey, 2016). Given the targets and the scale of oppression, with at least 10% of the population at the time being affected directly, origin localities that experienced relatively higher levels of deportees could have measurably worse human capital outcomes until today. Through this work, I will construct a novel dataset consisting of deportation intensity throughout origin localities in Lithuania and long-term human capital and political outcomes.