Using Indicators to Advance Multi-(Hazard)-Risk Management

本项目旨在了解现有的风险管理指标（可观察和可测量的特征，以了解当前状态或监测变化）是否支持“多（危害）风险管理”，并确定在此背景下加强其应用的机会。多重危害是指：“(1)选择一个国家面临的多种主要危害；(2)危险事件可能同时、级联或随时间累积发生的具体情况，并考虑到潜在的相互影响。”（联合国减少灾害风险办公室，2016）在这种情况下，多灾害方法包括但不仅限于对多种自然灾害的不同信息进行整理（或叠加），还包括表征灾害之间的相互关系。识别与空间相关的危害很重要，但不考虑相互关系（及其对暴露/脆弱性的影响）可能扭曲风险管理的优先次序或导致对风险的低估。仙台减少灾害风险框架（DRR）是联合国减少灾害损失的战略，明确要求减少灾害风险实践是“多灾害”的，并包括与多灾害早期预警系统和灾害风险信息相关的具体目标（DRR, 2015）。通过38项指标监测仙台框架的实施进展，其中包括两项关于多灾害目标的指标（G1、G2）。指标以不同的方式使用，包括通过衡量实现预期未来状态的进展来比较空间和时间上的风险水平。因此，指标有助于确定优先干预措施，以指导灾害风险管理行动（Brecht et al., 2013）。对H2020 MYRIAD-EU项目（Gill et al., 2022）开展的多（危害）风险指标文献的初步回顾表明，这些指标通常侧重于单个危害，或者不能提供评估多（危害）风险管理所需的指导。

This project aims to understand whether existing risk management indicators (observable and measurable characteristics to understand a current state or monitor change) support "multi-(hazard)-risk management" and identify opportunities to strengthen their application in this context. Multi-hazard means: "(1) the selection of multiple major hazards that the country faces, and (2) the specific contexts where hazardous events may occur simultaneously, cascadingly or cumulatively over time, and taking into account the potential interrelated effects." (UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), 2016) In this context, multi-hazard approaches include but extend beyond the collation (or overlay) of distinct information for multiple natural hazards, to also characterise hazard interrelationships. The identification of spatially relevant hazards is important, but failure to consider interrelationships (and their effects on exposure/vulnerability) can distort risk management priorities or result in an underestimation of risk. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), the UN strategy to reduce disaster losses, explicitly calls for DRR practices to be 'multi-hazard' and includes a specific target relating to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information (UNDRR, 2015). Progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework is monitored through 38 indicators, including two on the multi-hazard target (G1, G2). Indicators are used in different ways, including comparing risk levels spatially and over time by measuring progress towards a desired future state. Indicators therefore help to identify priority interventions to guide disaster risk management actions (Brecht et al., 2013). An initial review of literature on multi-(hazard)-risk indicators undertaken in the H2020 MYRIAD-EU project (Gill et al., 2022) suggests that these typically focus on individual hazards or do not provide the guidance required to evaluate multi-(hazard)-risk management.