Identification in Macroeconomics

我提出的论文侧重于估计宏观经济政策，特别是货币政策的因果效应。这个问题是现代动态宏观经济学研究的核心，与政策制定直接相关。迄今为止的文献受到特定概念框架的严重影响，在这种概念框架下，“因果效应”的概念被明确定义为“冲击”的影响，即与某些特定来源相关的未预料到的自主变化。我的论文将试图挑战这个概念框架，从经济学和社会科学的其他领域中通常使用的框架中获得灵感，在这些领域中，因果关系是根据反事实来定义的。我计划通过统计理论的结合来证明“基于冲击”的因果关系概念的缺陷，以及通过各种有效的经验应用来强调通过将因果关系视为反事实可以获得的见解。到目前为止，我的研究工作已经在试图做到这一点。特别是，作为一个正在进行的项目的一部分，我已经开发了许多证据来强调与“基于冲击”方法的特定应用相关的问题，该方法试图通过控制同时驱动政策决策和结果变量的混杂因素来估计政策的因果效应。我打算在这项研究的基础上攻读博士学位。首先，我计划提出类似的证明，以强调“基于冲击”的方法在其他情况下（即，除了从业者试图控制混杂因素的情况）也会出现类似的问题。其次，我计划通过应用工作展示可以通过替代方法获得的见解，重点是估计货币政策的影响（迄今为止文献中的一个定义挑战）。例如，我希望通过含蓄地揭示央行自己的预测，重新评估央行通过其政策决定对宏观经济的影响程度。我的假设是，由于“选择偏差”的根本问题，文献夸大了这种“信息渠道”——例如，中央银行关于经济前景正在恶化的信息往往与糟糕的经济结果联系在一起，仅仅是因为中央银行有能力有效地预测未来的衰退，而不是因为他们的信息与宏观经济之间存在因果关系。这对货币政策的实施有着重大影响，尤其是在经济衰退期间

My proposed thesis focuses on estimating the causal effects ofmacroeconomic policies, particularly monetary policy. This question is centralto the study of modern dynamic macroeconomics and has direct relevance forpolicy making. The literature to-date has been heavily influenced by aparticular conceptual framework, under which the notion of a "causal effect" isexplicitly defined in terms of the effect of a "shock" - that is, an unanticipated,autonomous change linked to some specific source. My thesis would seek tochallenge this conceptual framework, taking inspiration instead fromframeworks typically used in other areas of economics and social scienceswhere causality is defined in terms of counterfactuals. I plan to do this througha combination of statistical theory to prove the deficiencies in the"shock-based" conception of causality, as well as through various effectiveempirical applications highlighting the insights that can be gained throughconceiving of causality as counterfactuals.My research work to-date has already sought to do just that. In particular, aspart of an ongoing project, I have developed a number of proofs to highlight theproblems associated with a specific application of the "shock-based" approachin which one attempts to estimate the causal effect of policy by controlling forconfounding factors that simultaneously drive policy decisions and outcomevariables of interest. I plan to build on this work for the DPhil.First, I plan to develop similar proofs to highlight that similar issues arise withthe "shock-based" approach in other settings (i.e. other than ones in whichpractitioners attempt to control for confounding factors). Second, I plan todemonstrate insights that can be garnered through alternate approachesthrough applied work with a focus on estimating the effect of monetary policy (adefining challenge in the literature to-date). For example, I hope to revisitestimates of the extent to which central banks influence the macroeconomythrough their policy decisions by implicitly revealing their own forecasts. Myhypothesis is that the literature over-states this "information channel" due to afundamental issue of "selection bias" - for example, central bankcommunications that the economic outlook is worsening tend to be associatedwith bad economic outcomes simply because the central bank has the ability toeffectively predict future recessions rather than due to any causal relationshipbetween their communications and the macroeconomy. This has significantimplications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially around recessions